No tax credit in 2017

[michael]

Credits will expire on their own before too long. This isn't a battle anyone is likely to bother to fight.

 

[evnow]

Credits will expire on their own before too long. This isn't a battle anyone is likely to bother to fight.

Actually I expect Nissan, GM & Tesla to fight to change the rules as expiration nears. They'll say it is unfair that early movers like themselves are not going to get tax credits while late comers like Toyota & fiat will continue to get. I expect per OEM numbers to be changed to overall numbers - so everyone is playing on the level field.

 

[voltage]

They have always said when the money in the tax incentive coffers run out it runs out

 

[phil0909]

Actually I expect Nissan, GM & Tesla to fight to change the rules as expiration nears. They'll say it is unfair that early movers like themselves are not going to get tax credits while late comers like Toyota & fiat will continue to get. I expect per OEM numbers to be changed to overall numbers - so everyone is playing on the level field.

Really? You expect Tesla and the others to win that fight? I sure don't, not now. Hillary and her party lost.

 

[roundpeg]

Credits will expire on their own before too long. This isn't a battle anyone is likely to bother to fight.

Actually I expect Nissan, GM & Tesla to fight to change the rules as expiration nears. They'll say it is unfair that early movers like themselves are not going to get tax credits while late comers like Toyota & fiat will continue to get. I expect per OEM numbers to be changed to overall numbers - so everyone is playing on the level field.

This is basically the dynamic I'd expect. The companies that have been enjoying the credits for the longest will be in favor of pulling up the drawbridge sooner rather than later.

 

[roundpeg]

A good summary of the battle potentially to come on the CAFE standards:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-epa-mileage-standards-20170113-story.html

Bottom line is the EPA just promulgated new, higher CAFE standards for 2025. The industry will complain (it alway does) but in the end the industry's largest market (California) will have a lot of influence, and the industry in its heart-of-hearts knows they are better off with a difficult federal target than a bunch of different state targets.

The EPA rules are difficult to override but Congress can if it has the will (attached to some must-pass legislation). Now if the Trump administration also follows through with tariffs on products made in Mexico (where many of the economy cars are assembled) then we could see a big shift away from fuel-efficient and renewable energy cars. This could all happen a lot faster than I think most realize.

 

[user 387]

A good summary of the battle potentially to come on the CAFE standards:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-epa-mileage-standards-20170113-story.html

Bottom line is the EPA just promulgated new, higher CAFE standards for 2025. The industry will complain (it alway does) but in the end the industry's largest market (California) will have a lot of influence, and the industry in its heart-of-hearts knows they are better off with a difficult federal target than a bunch of different state targets.

The EPA rules are difficult to override but Congress can if it has the will (attached to some must-pass legislation). Now if the Trump administration also follows through with tariffs on products made in Mexico (where many of the economy cars are assembled) then we could see a big shift away from fuel-efficient and renewable energy cars. This could all happen a lot faster than I think most realize.

Great points. To that end, to boost the average fuel economy of a manufacturer's fleet to the new 2025 levels, it almost has to have EVs or PHEVs in the fleet. These are expensive technologies and, for most people, the tax credit makes them affordable. Take the tax credit away and sales plummet, forcing manufacturers to remove them from their fleet offering, thus reducing the fleet average economy.

In the end, the big boys may need to sell EVs and PHEVs in order to keep selling their 1940s technology vehicles that offer massive profits and sell in massive numbers, but have poor economy (read: F-105, Silverado, Tahoe, Expedition...).

So, EVs enable pickups..... Hmmm, something is wrong, here.

 

[pdxbolt]

I just don't think that they are enthusiastic about building them.

You don't spend Billions if you are not enthusiastic. As the CEO, you don't stake your reputation on it if you aren't enthusiastic.

Try telling that to the CEO of fiat Chrysler who
keeps whining that he loses 14 grand on each car.
No, the reason manufacturers are building electric cars is that without offering one in their lineup, they can't sell any - with a capital any-
cars in California.
I would not call that enthusiasm.

 

[evnow]

Try telling that to the CEO of fiat Chrysler who
keeps whining that he loses 14 grand on each car.
No, the reason manufacturers are building electric cars is that without offering one in their lineup, they can't sell any - with a capital any-
cars in California. I would not call that enthusiasm.

If you don't know the difference between Sergie and Ghosn, I'm wasting my time responding to you.

 

[evnow]

Really? You expect Tesla and the others to win that fight? I sure don't, not now. Hillary and her party lost.

The best EV state incentives were in a red state. Its not all a partisan fight. Afterall the 7.5k tax credit was signed by Bush.

 

[WetEV]

Try telling that to the CEO of fiat Chrysler who keeps whining that he loses 14 grand on each car.

Fiat Chrysler was cheating on emission testing. Emissions controls turned off after 22 minutes. Emission tests take 20 minutes. Cute.

Maybe we will go back to the days when the Emergency Room could tell how bad the air was. By how many people were coming in with breathing distress. That is a real reason for whining.

At a $140 per kWh, and the rest of the car being the same or less, a 24kWh car should should be at most $3k more than a gasoline car. I'm sure you can waste the other $11k lots of ways. But you don't need to.

 

[roundpeg]

Great points. To that end, to boost the average fuel economy of a manufacturer's fleet to the new 2025 levels, it almost has to have EVs or PHEVs in the fleet. These are expensive technologies and, for most people, the tax credit makes them affordable. Take the tax credit away and sales plummet, forcing manufacturers to remove them from their fleet offering, thus reducing the fleet average economy.

In the end, the big boys may need to sell EVs and PHEVs in order to keep selling their 1940s technology vehicles that offer massive profits and sell in massive numbers, but have poor economy (read: F-105, Silverado, Tahoe, Expedition...).

So, EVs enable pickups..... Hmmm, something is wrong, here.

In a way they do, but it's part of the formulation that has continued to drive fuel efficiency higher on an overall basis, and that was always the goal. It's a bargain similar to cap and trade. Some industries are allowed to be relatively dirty so long as they are able to buy that right from clean industries and the overall result is cleaner.

Anyway, my point is keeping renewables moving forward is part of a package tied up with a bow. Pull just a few strings, and it falls apart. I'm not saying it will definitely happen but it seems to me those who say it could never happen are rationalizing.