2017 Nissan Leaf Hits Back At Chevrolet Bolt

[SparkE]

New Jersey and Eastern Mass SUCKS for Upstate NY! I have no intention of driving 8 hours just to sit in a car for 10 minutes. And it appears that to get an October test drive, you have to physically be at one of these events to register!

It *sounds* that way, but Nissan made big announcement 6 months or so ago, allowing current LEAF lessees to keep their car past the nominal end point of their lease, for up to a year. They said it was to allow them to stay in a LEAF while waiting for the next gen LEAF-2 to arrive before the end of this year, and so customers wouldn't have to sign a new 3-year lease just because they wanted to stay in an EV but go with a different car (since the LEAF2 wasn't available). In other words, to keep them out of a Tesla Model 3 or a Bolt. They were even offering some free months, IIRC. I thought it was a pretty smart move on their part - talk about building brand loyalty! And I like it personally, since when 9-12 months of LEAF lease returns hit the used market during a (say) 6 week period, prices should plummet even more than they already are (about $7K gets you a fairly low-mileage 3 year old LEAF around San Francisco.) If I can buy a used, 25,000-mile LEAF for $5K, I'll have 2 electric vehicles (well, my family will - end of the daily argument about who gets to drive the EV today).

I don't think that Nissan wants to make it difficult to take a test drive for current LEAF drivers - that is their #1 market. So I would expect that any current LEAF lessee can easily sign up for a test drive fairly easily. If you currently lease a LEAF, call your dealer and ask how you can get a test drive of the new LEAF.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I'll try that, but I suspect that what Nissan expects is for us to order a Leaf 2 without driving or even sitting in one, in cases where we live far from their few demo locations. If they want that to happen, they will have to raise the residuals enough to get the lease for a loaded SV WELL under $400. As it is, with a Nissan-standard 33% residual, those leases will be be over $400. They need to do something like 45%, so the car will be affordable to buy, but also affordable to lease.

 

[DucRider]

I'll try that, but I suspect that what Nissan expects is for us to order a Leaf 2 without driving or even sitting in one, in cases where we live far from their few demo locations. If they want that to happen, they will have to raise the residuals enough to get the lease for a loaded SV WELL under $400. As it is, with a Nissan-standard 33% residual, those leases will be be over $400. They need to do something like 45%, so the car will be affordable to buy, but also affordable to lease.

You will most definitely be able to test drive the 2018 LEAF at your local dealer... eventually.
In September, there will be four (4) cars in the US to be shown at NDEW events.
In October, they will be bringing small fleets to set locations to provide test drives. The publicized plan is for these to be special events for current owners that attend the NDEW events with the LEAF on display to sign up. I guess it's kind of the Nissan version of the Model 3 rollout. It's possible (likely?) that others (non NDEW attendees and/or owners) may be able to get a test drive if space is available.

After that, it's anybody's guess.

They will be showing, test driving and delivering vehicles in their strongest markets first. It's the way I would do it. The NDEW preview locations tell you what they consider those markets to be.

With first deliveries looking to be similar to the Bolt last year, we'll probably see a few hit CA right before year end. Their rollout will likely be to the markets that are getting the LEAF preview (they are showing them there for a reason) before the rest of the US. And who knows when dealers will have inventory to test drive. If people are willing to buy without sitting in or driving one, they will get it sooner. We saw that with the Bolt, and seems to be a non-issue for Tesla and the 3.

It'll be interesting to see if $400 leases on a LEAF turn off people like they did for the Bolt. People have gotten so conditioned to the discounted leases on EV's, they forget that leasing a $35K+ vehicle is not <$200/mo without some discounting. Same holds true to a degree for those purchasing the vehicle.

Note: I don't put a lot of stock in the leaked specs or prices. More battery (200+ miles) and more $$ across the board is my prediction.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Well, that was a lot of obvious to type! ;-)

It is, despite your continued contentions, possible to pay full price for a leased EV and still get a lease in the $300 range - especially when the manufacturer doesn't pocket most of the tax credit! (Your continued claim that we expect sub-$200 leases is just a strawman argument.) When I was playing with a lease calculator last week, I used a $17k residual, .003 money factor (which I got in 2013), and a significant but not gigantic down payment on top of my state's $2k. The payment was just below $300 for a nearly fully loaded SV. I don't know why you keep defending GMAC so doggedly, but they are mostly worth looking at as the worst case leasing scenario.

 

[SparkE]

Well, that was a lot of obvious to type! ;-)

It is, despite your continued contentions, possible to pay full price for a leased EV and still get a lease in the $300 range - especially when the manufacturer doesn't pocket most of the tax credit! (Your continued claim that we expect sub-$200 leases is just a strawman argument.) When I was playing with a lease calculator last week, I used a $17k residual, .003 money factor (which I got in 2013), and a significant but not gigantic down payment on top of my state's $2k. The payment was just below $300 for a nearly fully loaded SV. I don't know why you keep defending GMAC so doggedly, but they are mostly worth looking at as the worst case leasing scenario.

Hey, I am driving a Spark EV because my monthly payment is $89. That is *before* the $2500 California rebate (that lessees get). And before the electric Co. check ($500 - PG&E). All that because I was thinking that my 20 year old Toyota would probably fail 'some time soon'. So now it (the Toyota) is reserved for the 80+ mile trips (and spends almost all its time on the "battery maintainer" and parked in the driveway).

 

[LeftieBiker]

My lease payment is $159 - $149 plus $10 tax on the extension. That doesn't mean that I "expect" to pay a similar amount for a 2018 Leaf.

 

[DucRider]

Well, that was a lot of obvious to type! ;-)

It is, despite your continued contentions, possible to pay full price for a leased EV and still get a lease in the $300 range - especially when the manufacturer doesn't pocket most of the tax credit! (Your continued claim that we expect sub-$200 leases is just a strawman argument.) When I was playing with a lease calculator last week, I used a $17k residual, .003 money factor (which I got in 2013), and a significant but not gigantic down payment on top of my state's $2k. The payment was just below $300 for a nearly fully loaded SV. I don't know why you keep defending GMAC so doggedly, but they are mostly worth looking at as the worst case leasing scenario.

Talk about obvious. Yes, if you put enough of a "down payment" on a lease (or purchase for that matter), you can get the monthly payment to as low as $0. That doesn't reduce the total cost of the lease/purchase.

Dealers LOVE payment shoppers....

When I talk monthly payment, it is for the total lease cost/# months. I don't include any local rebates, as most buyers do not have them available. And the leasing company always "pockets" ALL of the tax credit. It is theirs, not yours. That is how the tax code is written. There are any number of ways that they can use it to reduce the total lease cost (monthly payments times # of months plus any "down payment"/CCR). Some people have a hard time with the concept. Your payments are determined by more than just capitalized cost, so they can be lowered by manipulating other factors - you should know that from playing with a lease calculator. Try taking $7500 off the capitalized cost, then compare it to $2,500 off the capitalized cost and $5K added to the residual. How much does the total lease cost change?

Local offer for a LEAF SL is $299/mo with $0 down. Residual is $11,033. Total lease cost $10,782. That's with a $10K+ discount from MSRP.
The 2018 LEAF - S, SV & SL - will all be significantly more. The prices that were on the Autobytel leak are unreliable (read that as bogus, incorrect, wrong, garbage), as is the 40 kWh pack size.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

The prices that were on the Autobytel leak are unreliable (read that as bogus, incorrect, wrong, garbage), as is the 40 kWh pack size.

It has been hinted at that the leak was actually planned by Nissan to gauge/foster interest. I wonder what the likelihood is that the leak was planned, but with incorrect data, in order to throw us off the scent. Whether or not it was intentional, it certainly has caused a huge spike in discussion about the Leaf. The extra mindshare is a good thing for Nissan.

2.5 weeks and counting.

 

[DucRider]

It has been hinted at that the leak was actually planned by Nissan to gauge/foster interest. I wonder what the likelihood is that the leak was planned, but with incorrect data, in order to throw us off the scent. Whether or not it was intentional, it certainly has caused a huge spike in discussion about the Leaf. The extra mindshare is a good thing for Nissan.

2.5 weeks and counting.

Hmmmm.....
Leak a 40 kWh pack size, announce a 50 kWh with 204 miles EPA.

"Wow, better than we thought!"

Minimize comparison with the 60 kWh in the Bolt? Under-promise and over-deliver? Lots of win.

 

[LeftieBiker]

And the leasing company always "pockets" ALL of the tax credit. It is theirs, not yours. That is how the tax code is written. There are any number of ways that they can use it to reduce the total lease cost (monthly payments times # of months plus any "down payment"/CCR). Some people have a hard time with the concept.

No, but I do have a hard time with people who will obfuscate reality just to - for whatever reason - make a bad deal look better. We both know that Nissan passes on the full Federal tax credit as a CCR, but you apparently don't want other people to understand that. So you instead tell us that GM is actually using the other $5k to raise the residual - to our benefit, of course! Well, I've had this go-round with you too often, so while I'll continue to rebut your pro-GMAC propaganda, I won't respond directly to you. I trust most potential lessees to at least understand the difference between being charged $5000 (while "saving" about $300 on tax) and saving $5000. I just hope that you get paid by the word. ;-)

 

[DucRider]

No, but I do have a hard time with people who will obfuscate reality just to - for whatever reason - make a bad deal look better. We both know that Nissan passes on the full Federal tax credit as a CCR, but you apparently don't want other people to understand that. So you instead tell us that GM is actually using the other $5k to raise the residual - to our benefit, of course! Well, I've had this go-round with you too often, so while I'll continue to rebut your pro-GMAC propaganda, I won't respond directly to you. I trust most potential lessees to at least understand the difference between being charged $5000 (while "saving" about $300 on tax) and saving $5000. I just hope that you get paid by the word. ;-)

As I stated above, taking $ off the MSRP or raising the residual by that same amount result in the same reduction in payment. Doesn't matter if it is GMAC, Ally or Nissan financing.
You obviously recognize the principal:

... they will have to raise the residuals enough to get the lease for a loaded SV WELL under $400. As it is, with a Nissan-standard 33% residual, those leases will be be over $400. They need to do something like 45%, so the car will be affordable to buy, but also affordable to lease.

Maybe you seem to think raising the residual has no financial impact on the leasing company? Why not a 95% or better yet 105% residual. They would then pay you to drive the car! Everybody wins! The financing company gets to "pocket" the entire $7500 (no need to give any CCR with negative lease payments), GM moves tons of Bolts, you get paid to drive it. I just can't understand why leasing companies have never thought of this. :lol:

 

[SparkE]

Details on the LEAF-2 are coming out. Don't know how accurate, but ...

http://jalopnik.com/the-2018-nissan-leaf-is-no-tesla-model-3-but-it-wont-co-1800664984

 

[DucRider]

Details on the LEAF-2 are coming out. Don't know how accurate, but ...

http://jalopnik.com/the-2018-nissan-leaf-is-no-tesla-model-3-but-it-wont-co-1800664984

You can configure here:
https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/2018-leaf/

If you "reserve" one - no deposit - no obligation, you will get an Apple Watch, GoPro or Nest when you purchase/lease.

With heated seats, Quick Charge and Navigation, entry level is $34,275. (SV w/all weather)
Bolt LT is $38,800 (MSRP).

LEAF deliveries in any qty will be Jan+, with little to no discount until inventory builds up.

Still no mention of thermal management, except 25% better. They might have added some fans to blow ambient temperature air over the pack.

 

[marshallinwa]

They are still going to use CHAdeMO when almost everyone else is going to CCS. You have to wonder if that's going to be a problem for folks who buy, not lease, this car in the long term.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

They are still going to use CHAdeMO when almost everyone else is going to CCS. You have to wonder if that's going to be a problem for folks who buy, not lease, this car in the long term.

Certainly remains to be seen. Every (non-Tesla) DCQC I have seen has had a CHAdeMO port. Either CHAdeMO only or CHAdeMO/CCS combined. I have never seen a CCS only DCQC (not saying they don't exist - I'm sure they do).

I think this is what we'll continue to see going forward for the next 10-15 years. Eventually a much higher power standard will arrive that will (hopefully) rule them all.

A corollary - for years in the cellular industry, there were two competing technologies. AT&T et. al. used GSM and later UMTS. Verizon et. al. used CDMA2000. Today, those networks still exist as 2G/3G signals. But LTE (4G) has come along and ended the battle. Today everyone (AT&T, Verizon, et. al.) use LTE for their 4G service.

 

[joe]

I don't get why they are still pushing chademo when Nissan is really the only Japanese company making decent electric cars. If Toyota was interested in making EVs that needed DCFC, maybe there would be some weight. And Nissan is actually French anyway, so they should be on the CCS standard. I guess they invested heavily and are suffering from a concord fallacy situation?

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I don't get why they are still pushing chademo when Nissan is really the only Japanese company making decent electric cars. If Toyota was interested in making EVs that needed DCFC, maybe there would be some weight. And Nissan is actually French anyway, so they should be on the CCS standard. I guess they invested heavily and are suffering from a concord fallacy situation?

Look at the CHAdeMO infrastructure in Japan. Now consider a car that can travel 150 miles on a charge (i.e. the 2018 Leaf). I think your answer is pretty self-explanatory. The Leaf is a world car, not just for the US. In fact, the US is a pretty poor match for the car's specs overall, especially when compared to Japan or Europe.

 

[sgt1372]

The new Leaf only has a 40 kwh battery w/an estimated range of 150 miles for 2018. A 60 kwh battery w/200 miles of range is not expected until 2019.

So, I don't see the new Leaf as competitive w/the Bolt (238) or base Tesla M3 (220) based on cost or range at least until 2019.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Yup, if the Leaf is hitting back, it's hitting back with a feather.

 

[LeftieBiker]

So, I don't see the new LEAF as competitive w/the Bolt (238) or base Tesla M3 (220) based on cost or range at least until 2019.

It will definitely compete on cost, and win. Where more range is needed the Bolt and M3 will win. Sadly, I'll be test driving a Bolt because I think Nissan screwed up some apparently minor but important-to-me things on the 2018 Leaf - like no charge limit feature, a speedometer buried in a deep dashboard well, and not installing the equipment needed for Pro Park this year. If I believe I can fix the Bolt's seat and don't hate the highway ride, I'll lease whichever car is cheaper, because I doubt I'll love either one...