oilerlord said:
We do agree that the Bolt will have a significant effect in the overall advancement of BEV's, but we disagree that the public will pay twice as much for the Bolt than a Sonic (or other inexpensive small crossover) - just because it's an electric car. I believe it's way too early to expect people to embrace an EV's eccentricities and perceived compromises en masse, especially with the availability of cheap gas. The fun-to-drive factor in a small crossover won't be enough to overcome the apparent "need" for a car that can go 300 miles on a tank (and can fill up anywhere, in a couple of minutes). The Bolt also doesn't answer those "what if" questions regarding range and the ability to get to city X, the lack of DCFC infrastructure in rural areas, and justifying how long it otherwise takes to charge the battery. DCFC doesn't answer all those questions, at least not yet. $5 per gallon could be a catalyst for EV's but that's probably years away too.
And so, it comes down to affordability, and this is no different than early hybrids that used to cost an extra $6,000 over their gasoline counterparts. People ran the math, and determined that $6K buys a lot of gasoline. Now, some manufacturers are offering the hybrid option for no extra charge, and we're seeing hybrids everywhere. Perhaps a decade from now, EV's may be offered for about the same price as a similar gasoline car. That's when the game may change.
A few things, while the comparison to the Sonic has some merit, it is partly due to the misconception that the Bolt is based on the Sonic. While true they used that as a starting point and it is still a G2XX chassis, engineering and design decisions and considerations led to a chassis unique to the Bolt. It has a longer wheelbase, is taller and wider, has a flat floor with the batteries underneath, more interior room with the cabin "pushed" into what was the engine compartment. Battery weight and location also dictated major structural changes.
The performance of the Bolt also puts it in a completely different class than the Sonic Hatchback (which is much closer to $20K than $15K with an automatic and a few goodies that make it a better comparison the the Bolt in LT trim).
When compared to the Sonic Hatchback (or other "small wagons"), the Bolt offers:
Better performance
More fun to drive
Much more fuel efficient
Much, much "greener"
More high tech and modern
Way "cooler"
Virtually no maintenance
Reduced cost of ownership
More convenient to fuel
Not all of these will be imprtant to every buyer, and the value they place on them will vary. Enough to justify $10K? Not for everyone.
Is a Model S worth 3x+ a Hyundai Sonata? To 17K people in the US this year, yes. (I know people like to compare Tesla to Mercedes, BMW and other luxury makers, but their interior fit and finish is not in that class) They also like to compare them to performance or sports cars and the Tesla is a one trick pony - the dragstrip. Not that different than the muscle cars of the 60's and 70's.
The proper comparison of the Bolt is to the i3, 250e, Soul EV, e-golf, etc. Although I haven't driven the Bolt yet, it's a safe bet that the Mercedes and BMW will have a better interior and be much quieter at freeway speed. Are they worth an extra $5-10K and less than half the range?
What's a 107 mile LEAF worth compared to the Bolt?
Is the Bolt a game changer? - yes. Will it redefine the industry? - not to anywhere near the Model T did. But it is a vehicle that will force other automakers to rethink, redesign, and lower prices (part of the reason for the LEAF 2.0 delay). I consider that to be a game changer.