So are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?

[BarfOMatic]

{{ Edited by mod: A looooooong series of threads were flagged as "off-topic" (which they were) and many were mean-spirited . They were all removed. }}

This post simply left as a 'reminder' to try and keep things on topic, please.

 

[paulgipe]

From these forums we learned that the technology is changing so fast that it made sense to lease.

Also, as a US resident with a low income, the federal subsidies were useless to us, so leasing became the best strategy. . . . We got a hell of a deal on our lease ($250 USD/mo total) so it's unlikely buying it will be wise as the residual should be fairly high.

Without knowing your details; how much down, miles allowed, et al, that does seem like a great lease deal. We'd have definitely considered one of those, but GM and our dealer were nowhere near that. IIRC, it was on the order of $5000 down and $335 a month. We were also able to use the tax credit, so buying worked for us.

jack vines

Jack,

Details of the lease deal are at Our Lease of a Chevy Bolt and What it Cost Us and an update at Net Cost of a Lease for a 2018-2019 Chevy Bolt EV in the San Joaquin Valley

Here's the gist.
10,000 miles
0 down, 0 drive off
three year lease (required by California)
$250/mo for 36 mos.

But yes, if we decide we want to keep this Bolt at the end of the lease it won't make sense financially as the residual will be too high. We'll have to buy another used Bolt with all that entails.

Paul

 

[Pigwich]

From these forums we learned that the technology is changing so fast that it made sense to lease.

Also, as a US resident with a low income, the federal subsidies were useless to us, so leasing became the best strategy. . . . We got a hell of a deal on our lease ($250 USD/mo total) so it's unlikely buying it will be wise as the residual should be fairly high.

Without knowing your details; how much down, miles allowed, et al, that does seem like a great lease deal. We'd have definitely considered one of those, but GM and our dealer were nowhere near that. IIRC, it was on the order of $5000 down and $335 a month. We were also able to use the tax credit, so buying worked for us.

jack vines

Jack,

Details of the lease deal are at Our Lease of a Chevy Bolt and What it Cost Us and an update at Net Cost of a Lease for a 2018-2019 Chevy Bolt EV in the San Joaquin Valley

Here's the gist.
10,000 miles
0 down, 0 drive off
three year lease (required by California)
$250/mo for 36 mos.

But yes, if we decide we want to keep this Bolt at the end of the lease it won't make sense financially as the residual will be too high. We'll have to buy another used Bolt with all that entails.

Paul

Paul! Hallelujah and thanks for getting back on topic.

I did some snooping around on the internets and I'm seeing KBB values for the Bolt at around 25-26K as well. What I'm wondering is if congress will swoop in and bring back the EV credit so the American (ahem...Korean) car doesn't get crushed by the Korean cars....hm.....

Funny nobody's mentioning the Focus electric :lol: which I know NOTHING about, although seeing as how horrible the C-MAX is, I'm not surprised it's not a topic.

Would they bring back a credit for Tesla's sake? Are they really the only other American EV maker?

Having had a Spark EV before the Bolt, I'm glad I leased that time. I was expecting a far more incremental improvement, but the Bolt was MILES ahead of the Spark EV. But in the beginning, it looked like everybody had 80 mile cars, now everybody's got 240 mile cars, but what's next?

I'll say this... I LIKE the Bolt, it works, we can take it on road trips. I wish it charged faster, but the pit stops aren't bad, and more chargers are popping up every day. What I WOULD like to do is to be able to PULL things. I want a trailer hitch on my car, I'd like V2G capability so that some day I can have cold beer after the big one hits, I'd like a little more ground clearance, I'd like a slightly larger trunk, I'd like the stupid Keypass notification to stop popping up, little things. And the other Kona / eNiro are unproven. "Yeah but it's a Kia" they say, not that the Bolt isn't mostly plastic too...

What would be stupid is if everybody just kept moving, car to car to whoever had federal tax credits left. On the other hand, will GM get their **** together and stop whining about the amazing price of batteries (sub $150 per kWh TWO YEARS AGO) and start marking their cars down so they can compete against "those overseas companies" or will perhaps they just continue bitching that "consumers don't want electric cars" when all the while they haven't aired one damn commercial.

At the end of my lease, what I was thinking, was that prices of used will be UP because there will be no more federal subsidy, and there will be no incentive to just NOT keep the car. Plus with how crazy simple a battery change is to do in a Bolt (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3G8JGsEjPA) I would wager that we can probably count on kick-ass aftermarket batteries being available in 10 years when range fade starts to really sting. More likely though, since I was one of the first doofuses to ever lease a Bolt in California, I might just TURO somebody's beat up 2013 Leaf with it's 50 mile range for a year to the tune of way less than my lease and insurance, and see what comes waddling by the dealership. Otherwise they have me over the barrel because I can't be car-less, and there won't be any lease return Bolts on the lot when I need one. I got mine January 2017.

OR maybe I'll strike it rich and just buy a Rivian and have my dream of dragging my airstream up a mountain and making crepes on an induction stove powered by the battery. Only time will tell, but what do other people think?

 

[SparkE]

There should be several new vehicles for sale in 2020 that are "better" than today's Bolt (if the exact same model is avail next year). If there are two or three different vehicles that are about 240 miles of range, for about $38K, and you can get $7500 fed tax credit AND $2500 (or more) state rebate, then a 3-year-old Bolt should be worth less than $25K (since one can get something slightly better and "new" for $28K after rebates/credits).

3-4 year old shorter range EVs (<=110 miles: SparkEVs, LEAFs, Focus EVs, Fiat 500s) with not too many miles (under 35K) are selling for $7-10K around San Francisco. The Kia Soul EVs, VW e-Golfs, and the BMWs can be found for $12-$15K. When new, the latter 3 listed for approx $33K-$45K (depending on the packages) so I would guess that used Bolts will be selling for around $15-20K only a year or so after the first ones show up on the used market in any quantity - maybe sooner. There were a LOT of leases signed, so a LOT of cars should be hitting the market in 2020.

If you think that "the car you'd love" (and can afford) is going to be on the market 3-9 months after you have to turn in your Bolt, AND you can live with 60 miles of range for that time, I'd highly suggest looking at used LEAFs for 3-4 months before your Bolt has to be turned in. I peruse the used lists "for fun", and a 2011 LEAF showed up 2 weeks ago with only 24,000 miles on it ... for $5800! It was sold in less than 2 days. One can often find a steal if one is patient. If you find a good deal, you might be able to sell it for the same price you paid, after using it for 6-9 months.

( Edit: holycrap! There's a 2013 Focus EV with only 12,600 miles going for $10,800! )

 

[BoltEV]

There should be several new vehicles for sale in 2020 that are "better" than today's Bolt (if the exact same model is avail next year). If there are two or three different vehicles that are about 240 miles of range, for about $38K, and you can get $7500 fed tax credit AND $2500 (or more) state rebate, then a 3-year-old Bolt should be worth less than $25K (since one can get something slightly better and "new" for $28K after rebates/credits).

Since you have done the research, which 240+ range BEVs for about $38K will be released in 2020?

And I thought I read that the $7,500 federal tax credit starts to phase out next year?

 

[DucRider]

There should be several new vehicles for sale in 2020 that are "better" than today's Bolt (if the exact same model is avail next year). If there are two or three different vehicles that are about 240 miles of range, for about $38K, and you can get $7500 fed tax credit AND $2500 (or more) state rebate, then a 3-year-old Bolt should be worth less than $25K (since one can get something slightly better and "new" for $28K after rebates/credits).

Since you have done the research, which 240+ range BEVs for about $38K will be released in 2020?

And I thought I read that the $7,500 federal tax credit starts to phase out next year?

Kona & Niro are the 2 coming with that range and price. LEAF Plus will have 226 and likely also to be $37,495

GM hit 200K in December so their phase out starts Apr 1.
Tesla hit 200K last July, so they are at 50% until they drop to 25% on July 1.
All other manufacturers have not yet reached the 200K that triggers the phase out.

 

[SparkE]

There should be several new vehicles for sale in 2020 that are "better" than today's Bolt (if the exact same model is avail next year). If there are two or three different vehicles that are about 240 miles of range, for about $38K, and you can get $7500 fed tax credit AND $2500 (or more) state rebate, then a 3-year-old Bolt should be worth less than $25K (since one can get something slightly better and "new" for $28K after rebates/credits).

Since you have done the research, which 240+ range BEVs for about $38K will be released in 2020?

I meant that in 2020, one would be able to buy, new, multiple EVs that have 200+ mile range - not necessarily that the vehicles would be released in 2020.

However :

Kia Niro
Hyundai Kona
Tesla Model 3 (the "standard range" model)
Nissan LEAF (extended range)
Kia Soul EV (new model for 2019/20) - ?220 miles range?
VW I.D. (theoretically, 2020) : new in 2020. Two battery options: ~180 miles and ~275 miles
?Ford? (they *talk* about an affordable CUV BEV for 2020, and that it will have 300 miles of range, but ... who knows)

In the 170-200 miles range, and less expensive :
Hyunai Ioniq "extended range" (new model)


These will be in the 200-300+ range, and MORE expensive :
AUDI e-tron
Jaguar I-Pace
Mercedes EQC (suv)
Mercedes EQA ?? (compact)
BMW Mini E
BMW iX3 ? (maybe 2021)
Polestar (the electric sportscar division of Volvo)
Porsche Taycan

 

[SeanNelson]

Kona & Niro are the 2 coming with that range and price. LEAF Plus will have 226 and likely also to be $37,495

There's more than just raw specs and price to consider, though. It sounds like the Kona & Niro might have availability issues (which is also true of the Bolt in some markets), and even the new Leaf has a questionable reputation in terms of it's battery longevity. The market is still too thinly supplied for EVs to be truly fungible.

 

[BoltEV]

Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters that electric car subsidies "will all end in the near future," adding 2020 or 2021 when asked for a timeline.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/clas...lectric-vehicle-subsidies-20181204-story.html

 

[BoltEV]

{{ Edited by mod: A looooooong series of threads were flagged as "off-topic" (which they were) and many were mean-spirited . They were all removed. }}

This post simply left as a 'reminder' to try and keep things on topic, please.

Yes, keep those mean spirited messages on-topic, please! hahahahaha

 

[SparkE]

There's more than just raw specs and price to consider, though. It sounds like the Kona & Niro might have availability issues (which is also true of the Bolt in some markets), and even the new Leaf has a questionable reputation in terms of it's battery longevity. The market is still too thinly supplied for EVs to be truly fungible.

True. However, in the context of "are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?", there WILL be multiple choices available (depending on where you live) and that *should* drive down the price of used electrics of a similar class (around $38K, 200-ish miles of range). Thus, at lease end it might be preferable to buy a used one instead of paying the contractual residual on yours. Or, use 'comparables' to dicker with the finance company to get a lower price on yours. Or look at new ones to lease.

 

[Pigwich]

So in regards to "dickering" with the finance company, I'd like to know if anybody has historically had any success on this front. I asked when my Spark EV lease was up and they told me immediately that there was absolutely no negotiating whatsoever and that I could either turn it in or pay full asking price only. It's probably something to do with being able to write it off as a loss or not. The bank was Ally, who apparently are horrible, although my experience was neutral. This time it's GMAC financing. Also neutral, but I'm on autopay, so it had better be ******* neutral.

The idea of buying some hog of a used LEAF isn't lost on me however. My commute is short and extremely predictable, but unfortunately it would mean family adventures up in the mountains would need to be suspended for that period.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters that electric car subsidies "will all end in the near future," adding 2020 or 2021 when asked for a timeline.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/clas...lectric-vehicle-subsidies-20181204-story.html

This will be largely true even if nothing changes. Most manufacturers will have sold 200k EVs by 2021 (the end of which is early 3 years away). Those that haven't aren't really serious about EVs anyway.

 

[SparkE]

Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters that electric car subsidies "will all end in the near future," adding 2020 or 2021 when asked for a timeline.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/clas...lectric-vehicle-subsidies-20181204-story.html

This will be largely true even if nothing changes. Most manufacturers will have sold 200k EVs by 2021 (the end of which is early 3 years away). Those that haven't aren't really serious about EVs anyway.

I don't know about that. VW (for example) is going pretty whole-hog into electric (or so they say), but haven't really been serious up until now - they have less than 15K e-cars sold (in the US). Kia and Hyundai have also sold very few electrics (because *up until now* they haven't really been in the game in the US - but will have 4 all-electrics for sale in the US this year: Ioniq, Soul, Niro, Kona). And I don't know what Honda is going to do (only ~25K sold); they have one of the best (IMO) PHEVs on the market today - 45 miles of electric range, comfort like a Camry/Avalon.

Sales comparable to the Bolt (~20K/yr) would give everybody I mentioned about 8 years to hit the limit.

 

[SeanNelson]

There's more than just raw specs and price to consider, though. It sounds like the Kona & Niro might have availability issues (which is also true of the Bolt in some markets), and even the new Leaf has a questionable reputation in terms of it's battery longevity. The market is still too thinly supplied for EVs to be truly fungible.

True. However, in the context of "are we all going to end up buying our cars after our leases are up?", there WILL be multiple choices available (depending on where you live) and that *should* drive down the price of used electrics of a similar class (around $38K, 200-ish miles of range). Thus, at lease end it might be preferable to buy a used one instead of paying the contractual residual on yours. Or, use 'comparables' to dicker with the finance company to get a lower price on yours. Or look at new ones to lease.

What will drive down the price of used EVs is the quantity of new models available relative to demand. Variety is nice, but if there's a shortage of numbers then it doesn't really matter how many models there are that you can't actually buy.

VW is making some very credible noises about mass production, potentially on a scale that will dwarf Tesla. That's the kind of thing that could have a serious impact on prices. But we'll have to wait a year or two to find out.

 

[BoltEV]

Yes: I think I will get hosed to "take it or leave it" of my residual of $25K next January; when there will be NO onslaught of other used Bolt EVs coming back to GM Financial, since I purchased mine "first one off the lot!"

The only advantage is that I have 20,000 miles left for 11 months but I will probably do some serious interstate driving just to burn those up and not waste them.

 

[sparkyps]

Why buy at lease end (my residual is $25k+) when you can buy a brand new one for under $30k and get the full tax credit right now?

I'm looking at buying one right now even though my lease isn't up for a year. Under $20k with California rebate and it will keep me from going over my 45k lease mileage

 

[SparkE]

If you live in CA you must own/drive the vehicle for a certain amount of time to get the rebate. (It used to be 30 months.) If you sell/return the car before that time, you have to tell CARB and give the rebate back. Now, if you didn't know that you could get the CA rebate for a lease, so you didn't apply, then no worries. Also, they changed the law last year so that the amount of rebate MAY depend on your income (poor people get more money). Also, if you make a LOT of money, you have to choose between the rebate and the HOV sticker. (If they haven't changed the law yet again.)

I believe that there is no requirement to keep the vehicle for any specific amount of time for the fed tax credit (which you wouldn't have gotten anyways, since you are leasing). If you didn't pay a huge amount up front (you'll never get the up-front payment back from GM), then maybe you can manage to find somebody who might like to take over the lease. Or, maybe you can find somebody who will give you a prorated 33% of your "drive off" fee. You will have to pay a "lease transfer fee", but you would avoid paying the "lease return fee" (which is called something else, but there is a fee).

And the fed tax credit is a CREDIT, not a rebate. If your total tax bill is (say) $6000, then that's all that you get back - the credit only offsets taxes and it can't be carried forward. Note, I'm not saying that your *balance still to pay* has to be $7500. If you are responsible for $8000 for the entire year, and have already paid $7000, normally owing $1000 - you would instead get a refund from the IRS (your bill was $8K, you have a tax credit of $7.5K, total tax becomes $500, you already paid $7000, so you would get a refund check for $6500).

If you don't make enough money to have a total tax bill of at least $7500 :
- sell some stock (if you can do that)
- open a Roth IRA, and move money out of your traditional IRA into the Roth (go talk to an accountant about this option)
- talk your boss into giving you a bonus

In either case, "make" enough so your total tax bill would be (say) $7600, so you can take the full tax credit.

 

[SparkE]

Why buy at lease end (my residual is $25k+) when you can buy a brand new one for under $30k and get the full tax credit right now?

There are actually quite a few dealerships in the greater San Jose area that are offering about $8000 of MSRP recently. They are the base model, with DCFC, and about no other package. Still, as stated, $30-$31K before subtracting tax credit and CA rebate is still a pretty good deal.

 

[BoltEV]

Why buy at lease end (my residual is $25k+) when you can buy a brand new one for under $30k and get the full tax credit right now?

I'm looking at buying one right now even though my lease isn't up for a year. Under $20k with California rebate and it will keep me from going over my 45k lease mileage

Actually I am looking to make a few casual trips during the next 9-1/2 months as I still have 20K left on my 45K mileage! Not driving Uber this time around (I did with my Volt) caused the overage.

But come next January (or sooner like sparkyps), I am also thinking that a "good deal" is far preferable to paying this obviously high residual.

One problem: I probably will not be in the position to take advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit (now or then), so I am hopeful that 3rd party leasors will enter the market for that purpose and reflect that credit in the monthly payments (as opposed to GM Financial, which put most of it in the residual).

Any ideas?