Is the Bolt a Tesla killer?

[Dgodfrey]

The bolt is about $2,500 more than the model 3, and that's including the supercharger access. there are YouTube videos of the model 3 reveal with riders taller than you that fit just fine. I wouldn't worry about that. enjoy the bolt, love the color.

No one really knows what a Model 3 will cost yet.

The true cost of a Bolt LT w/the comfort and convenience packages and DCFC, which most seem to have is closer to $40k than $37.5k. Premier models cost a $2-3k more.

The $35k figure used for the M3 is for a "basic" model. Just like the $37.5k figure has been used for a basic Bolt. Speculation is that a fully loaded M3 w/Autopilot, Supercharging, a 85kw battery and Ludicrous might cost as much as $50-60k.

See: http://www.teslarati.com/what-options-tesla-model-3-reservation-holders-looking-for/

But, again, no one really knows. Speculation also is that only "fully loaded" M3's will be made 1st and that anyone wanting a "basic" model will have to wait longer for one.

The M3 will be a much nicer car but you'll pay for it and reliability remains a question. Tesla seems to have worked out the problems w/the Model S and the Model 3 will not have the complexity of the Model X, so the Model 3 should have fewer problems than its predecessors.

With all due respect, a lot of what you posted is incorrect. The base Model 3 is still on track to be $35k before incentives and that includes the Fast Charging capabilities that a $40k bolt would have. It will also come with the Autopilot hardware that you can chose to enable or not for a fee. At this price point, it's competitive with the bolt and I'm being generous here. You can no doubt load it up to over $40k but those are OPTIONS. The latest reports from Fremont are that the first wave of Model 3's will be larger battery/RWD with a regional rollout. The next phase will be larger battery and AWD. This is not fully optioned by any definition. You are repeating the year old comment before the initial reveal that at the time may have been a smart business decision to generate revenue. This was when their optimistic expectations were that they may have 100k-200k reservations by the time of production. That's not how things turned out so generating early revenue when your plan is to roll out 500k cars a year is not longer a priority. You are correct in that we don't know what the options will cost or even some of the specifics but again, the official company quote is that the Model 3 will have a base price of $35k. It would be suicide for them to waiver from that statement and I sincerely don't expect them to. Time will tell who is right.

 

[SeanNelson]

...The base Model 3 is still on track to be $35k before incentives and that includes the Fast Charging capabilities that a $40k bolt would have. ... The latest reports from Fremont are that the first wave of Model 3's will be larger battery/RWD with a regional rollout. The next phase will be larger battery and AWD.

The salient point is that $35,000 Model 3s are still a long way off.

 

[sgt1372]

The base Model 3 is still on track to be $35k before incentives and that includes the Fast Charging capabilities that a $40k bolt would have. It will also come with the Autopilot hardware that you can chose to enable or not for a fee. At this price point, it's competitive with the bolt and I'm being generous here. You can no doubt load it up to over $40k but those are OPTIONS.

[snip]

You are correct in that we don't know what the options will cost or even some of the specifics but again, the official company quote is that the Model 3 will have a base price of $35k. It would be suicide for them to waiver from that statement and I sincerely don't expect them to. Time will tell who is right.

Do you really think that M3 buyers/lessees will want just a basic car? Unlikely.

Musk has already suggested publicly that the "average" price of an M3 will be around $42k making it about the price of a fully loaded Bolt Premier.

So, while the M3 will come in at a base price of $35k, it's unlikely that most of them will actually go out the door at that price, just as the $37.5k base price for the Bolt has already been proven to be just a starting point.

I still have an M3 reservation and monitor the posts on the Tesla forum and there's always a thread about what options people are going to buy and how much they will cost.

People there view the M3 has a "low cost" PRESTIGE car, like a BMW, and have all kinds of plans for loading them up. So, I'll stick w/the predictions (such as the one in the link I posted above) that puts the "real world" cost of an M3 much closer to $50k.

Just to add fuel to the fire, here's a link to another projection of the cost of an M3 at $50k+: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-average-selling-price-predictions.76275/

As you say, time will tell who's right.

 

[oilerlord]

I was thinking the same thing: Is the Bolt a Tesla killer? I didn't think so before I got mine, but now I wonder.

I think the Bolt was VERY well thought out. Very ergonomic - even the seats. I don't have a big problem with them

Perhaps not a "big" problem...but you do have a problem with them on some level. Very interesting. Paging Dr. Freud.

We sometimes consciously attempt to make a point, but our subconscious is in conflict. Above is a classic example of this.

 

[Dgodfrey]

"Do you really think that M3 buyers/lessees will want just a basic car? Unlikely."

I think there will be 10x as many base Model 3's as there are base Bolts. Or a more accurate way of stating it would be a similar percentage of total sales of both the Bolt and Model 3 will be base models.
I also think that if the Bolt offered AWD and a larger battery, they would sell at a similar percentage of upgraded Bolts as the Model 3 would. Just because the Bolt does not offer many options, doesn't put the demographic for the Bolt at a different price point as the Model 3. I would speculate that the huge number of reservations for the Model 3 had a lot to do with the $35k starting price. According to Model3Tracker, approximately 8% of reservation holders that have offered the data are planning on a bare bones Model 3. That would be around 30k of the initial 400k reservations if that number is still accurate. I have no idea how many bare bones Bolts have been delivered. Maybe someone here can fill that in. One advantage on pricing that I think the Bolt has is that the pricing is negotiable. Last I heard, they were offering discounts in the $2k range which puts it on par with base Model 3. Tesla does not negotiate. Just for grins, how many here that are either seriously considering the Bolt or have bought, would upgrade to AWD and/or bigger battery if available?

 

[sgt1372]

"Do you really think that M3 buyers/lessees will want just a basic car? Unlikely."

I think there will be 10x as many base Model 3's as there are base Bolts. Or a more accurate way of stating it would be a similar percentage of total sales of both the Bolt and Model 3 will be base models.
I also think that if the Bolt offered AWD and a larger battery, they would sell at a similar percentage of upgraded Bolts as the Model 3 would. Just because the Bolt does not offer many options, doesn't put the demographic for the Bolt at a different price point as the Model 3. I would speculate that the huge number of reservations for the Model 3 had a lot to do with the $35k starting price. According to Model3Tracker, approximately 8% of reservation holders that have offered the data are planning on a bare bones Model 3. That would be around 30k of the initial 400k reservations if that number is still accurate. I have no idea how many bare bones Bolts have been delivered. Maybe someone here can fill that in. One advantage on pricing that I think the Bolt has is that the pricing is negotiable. Last I heard, they were offering discounts in the $2k range which puts it on par with base Model 3. Tesla does not negotiate. Just for grins, how many here that are either seriously considering the Bolt or have bought, would upgrade to AWD and/or bigger battery if available?

FWIW, if 8% of M3 buyers go "basic," that still leaves 92% of them who elect to pay for the options which will make it a much more expensive car.

As for AWD and/or a bigger battery, depending on the cost, I would definitely have opted for a 90w battery for the Bolt.

Given that a Model S w/a 90kw battery and AWD has an estimated range of 288 miles, I would expect the Bolt's range to be increased well beyond 300 because of it's lighter weight relative to the Model S and the need to only drive 2 instead of 4 wheels. AWD I can do without.

 

[DucRider]

As for AWD and/or a bigger battery, depending on the cost, I would definitely have opted for a 90w battery for the Bolt.

There is a reason the Model 3 and the Bolt won't have a 90 kWh battery option - space. There just isn't room in the smaller form factor (and the Bolt uses prismatic/pouch cells which are much more energy "dense", both in to volume and weight).

 

[sgt1372]

There is a reason the Model 3 and the Bolt won't have a 90 kWh battery option - space. There just isn't room in the smaller form factor (and the Bolt uses prismatic/pouch cells which are much more energy "dense", both in to volume and weight).

True but the question was: Would you choose a larger battery for an option if offered? I would and I believe many others would too.

 

[oilerlord]

The question was: Would you choose a larger battery for an option if offered? I would and I believe many others would too.

I wouldn't.

Larger battery = extra cost + extra weight. For me, an EV with 60kWh battery and/or 150 miles of worst case range (regardless of temperature / season / snow / highway driving / heater on / etc) is really all I would ever need - given that we have a second car for unlimited range trips. If the EV is your only car however...perhaps not.