GM says 2017 Bolt will be limited availability.... perhaps West coast only this year?

[boltplease]

Article on InsideEvs says this:

GM spokesperson Michelle Malcho told the Wall Street Journal on Thursday that the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt will be limited in its availability and this has led some to believe that GM is backing down from its nationwide committment for the Bolt. [...] She then added that deliveries to states outside of the two initial launch markets (California and Oregon) will be at a "slow flow."

Comparing to the 2nd Gen Chevy Volt rollout, GM sent it to California and some other select markets the first year, and then nationwide the next year.

If the same happens with the Bolt EV, then California and Oregon will get the Bolt this year, and it might be next summer that the 2018 model year Bolt starts showing up at nationwide dealers?

 

[Anonymous]

GM is only making 30,000 the first year, so maybe they want to hit the high-model-3-reservation stats to try and steal as many away as they can?

 

[robbs]

I still don't get why they went with such a low first-year production number. I am still assuming this was a low estimate and they will surprise with a much higher number of Bolts actually being produced, especially as sales start to take off.

With the high number of Model 3 reservations, I think it shows the market is ready for a 200 mile EV so I think the Bolt will sell well, GM will ramp up production, and they may have trouble filling demand just on the West Coast for the next 6 months.

 

[Geo]

It was my understanding that 30K was the minimum run and that GM can produce more, if needed. Not sure of the exact maximum number, but I vaguely recall it may be in the range of 60-80K

 

[oilerlord]

With the high number of Model 3 reservations, I think it shows the market is ready for a 200 mile EV

With the high number of Model 3 reservations, I think it shows the market is ready for an affordable Tesla.

 

[roundpeg]

It was my understanding that 30K was the minimum run and that GM can produce more, if needed. Not sure of the exact maximum number, but I vaguely recall it may be in the range of 60-80K

Yes, this. The 30k number is frequently cited, but often out of context. I don't know that GM ever put a ceiling on the number of cars they expect to sell this year but they did say that 30k was the bottom end of the range, and this is also the number LG mentioned in their recent earnings report as the minimum number of battery packs they expected to sell to GM for the Bolt.

 

[ScooterCT]

The good news is that seemingly every auto maker on the planet is reading the tea leaves and planning Bolt-equivalent or better battery EVs in the next few years. You either disrupt or get disrupted. Even the fuel cell gods are finally caving and going battery. Meaning if GM doesn't sell the Bolt nationwide in quantity, somebody else will shortly sell something as good or better.

 

[SparkE]

And I am looking forward to a very, VERY inexpensive price for used EVs to replace my current EV when the lease runs out in a couple of years!

 

[oilerlord]

And I am looking forward to a very, VERY inexpensive price for used EVs to replace my current EV when the lease runs out in a couple of years!

I'm with SparkE on that, and wonder if the Bolt will hold it's resale value like Teslas do, or if it will depreciate on par with the Spark, Volt, and other non-Tesla EV's. Used Model S's are sought after, and seem to keep a somewhat decent resale value. My 2-year old B250e with 6,000 miles certainly didn't, and lost 65% of it's value. It sat five months on the lot before the dealer finally accepted my lowball offer.

There is no doubt that the Bolt will appeal to a wider audience, but so does the Volt. My guess is that a $42,000 Bolt Premier could be a $19,000 car when it has 2-years & 15,000 miles under it's belt.

 

[SeanNelson]

I'm with SparkE on that, and wonder if the Bolt will hold it's resale value like Teslas do, or if it will depreciate on par with the Spark, Volt, and other non-Tesla EV's.

Much of the reason that EVs depreciate rapidly is because newer models with better range and/or lower price keep coming out, making the older models less desirable. Nobody's been able to compete on range with Tesla until now, which IMHO largely explains their good resale value. It will be interesting to see how those prices hold up when vehicles with similar range but much lower cost (i.e., Bolt EV, Tesla Model 3) start coming onto the market.

 

[oilerlord]

Nobody's been able to compete on range with Tesla until now, which IMHO largely explains their good resale value. It will be interesting to see how those prices hold up when vehicles with similar range but much lower cost (i.e., Bolt EV, Tesla Model 3) start coming onto the market.

I don't think an EV's resale value is "only" about range, but more to do with the overall car itself. The Volt was a relatively successful EV, with good reviews and unlimited range, but it's resale value dropped like a stone. There's more to it than range that explains why 400,000+ people have plunked down a deposit on a Model 3, and pay top dollar for a used Model S.

 

[Tessy]

Would this be because of infrastructure in place or larger per capita market or more electric vehicles historically sold on the west coast versus the east coast?

 

[Geo]

I think Teslas mostly hold their value today because they are still a unique vehicle in terms of range/features. I remember the original RAV4 EVs were going for upwards of $40-50K in 2009-10. because it was just about the only viable EV on the road. After the Leaf and Tesla Roadster came on the market, the prices on the old RAV4's dropped considerably. I see a similar thing happening to Tesla, though maybe not as much of a drop.

 

[SeanNelson]

Nobody's been able to compete on range with Tesla until now, which IMHO largely explains their good resale value. It will be interesting to see how those prices hold up when vehicles with similar range but much lower cost (i.e., Bolt EV, Tesla Model 3) start coming onto the market.

I don't think an EV's resale value is "only" about range, but more to do with the overall car itself. The Volt was a relatively successful EV, with good reviews and unlimited range, but it's resale value dropped like a stone.

The Volt's value dropped at least in part because pretty much every new model year added electric range. The same is true of most other EVs.

It may not be "only" about range, but it's a big factor. We will soon get a better idea just how big as Bolts become available and the Model S has some actual competition in the 200 mile plus segment. I expect at least some effect on used Model S prices, although the cars are aimed at such different markets it may not be that big a factor.

 

[Aidan]

Nobody's been able to compete on range with Tesla until now, which IMHO largely explains their good resale value. It will be interesting to see how those prices hold up when vehicles with similar range but much lower cost (i.e., Bolt EV, Tesla Model 3) start coming onto the market.

I don't think an EV's resale value is "only" about range, but more to do with the overall car itself. The Volt was a relatively successful EV, with good reviews and unlimited range, but it's resale value dropped like a stone. There's more to it than range that explains why 400,000+ people have plunked down a deposit on a Model 3, and pay top dollar for a used Model S.

Never thought of that perspective. If Chevy is the game changer for electric vehicles then that is a bar that a lot of electric vehicles will try to meet in which case electric vehicles are a better product now than they were four years ago and could very well hold their resale value better because of this

 

[oilerlord]

The Volt's value dropped at least in part because pretty much every new model year added electric range. The same is true of most other EVs.

It may not be "only" about range, but it's a big factor. We will soon get a better idea just how big as Bolts become available and the Model S has some actual competition in the 200 mile plus segment. I expect at least some effect on used Model S prices, although the cars are aimed at such different markets it may not be that big a factor.

The Volt never had a range issue - it isn't a "big factor" at all. Volt 1.1, 1.2, added only few miles of electric range . Even Volt 2.0 received a small bump to 53 miles on battery. My point is that range didn't kill older Volt's resale values. Volt 2.0 is superior to 1.x models in every way from styling to comfort. The new Volt is simply a better looking car inside and out.

It took GM five years of design updates to get the Volt to where it is now. It's become an attractive car that doesn't look like an EV - and has abandoned the Tron science project look of the first models. I think Bolt 1.3 may be a better looking car too - perhaps evolving into sedan. When that happens, and the beautiful Model 3 takes over the "affordable" EV market, expect to see the Bolt 1.0 model's resale to plummet just like earlier Volts did - regardless of minor range tweaks along the way.

I think a lot of people on this board put way too much emphasis on range - as a "big factor" in the buying decision and not enough consideration about what an automaker does to stir the emotions in a buyer. Hands up on this question - Who here believes Mary Barra has done more than Elon Musk to inspire, motivate, and move EV's forward?

Tesla is a master of motivating and capturing an audience on so many levels. Even in it's vaporware form, the Model 3 has motivated 400,000+ people to plunk down a deposit. Ever wonder why we aren't seeing 400,000 people lining up to buy a Bolt? Perhaps it's because the Bolt by comparison looks like it was designed by a bunch of bean counters, shaving costs everywhere they could to hit a price point. 400,000+ people have spoken, and seem to agree with me.

 

[roundpeg]

I can only speak for myself as a first time EV buyer:

Range was the biggest factor. I'd never seriously considered buying an EV until the range was at least 200 miles on a reasonably-priced car.
The second biggest factor is the car can be bought now, instead of a year or more from now.
The third biggest factor is the hatchback design.
The fourth biggest factor is the integration of CarPlay. This is something Telsa does not and probably never will offer.

Sure, Tesla is great at creating desire, but their offerings aren't necessarily superior when it comes to a variety of other factors that also enter into buying decisions. I am buying a car, not a belief system, or a totem to the individual who runs the company (about which I could not possibly care less).

 

[SeanNelson]

I think a lot of people on this board put way too much emphasis on range - as a "big factor" in the buying decision and not enough consideration about what an automaker does to stir the emotions in a buyer. Hands up on this question - Who here believes Mary Barra has done more than Elon Musk to inspire, motivate, and move EV's forward?

There's no doubt that Elon has captured the imagination of a lot of people. But until now he's been selling to the luxury market - those who can afford a Model X or S care a lot less about price than Chevy Bolt and probably even Tesla Model 3 buyers do. When you're trying to move EVs down towards the mass market, price and range are important - and they're inexorably linked in an EV because the battery is the most expensive component of the car. Most buyers of EVs at the lower price points will be looking for the most range they can afford in a car that has a form factor that works for them.

People who are in the market for a used Model S are obviously more sensitive to price than buyers of new Model S's are, otherwise they'd wouldn't be looking at used cars. So when a Model 3 with similar range is available for substantially less, do you think that Model S's will continue to hold their value as they have (without competition) until now? I'd be pretty surprised if they did. I have no idea how large the impact on used prices will be, but I'm pretty sure there will be one.

 

[oilerlord]

So when a Model 3 with similar range is available for substantially less, do you think that Model S's will continue to hold their value as they have (without competition) until now? I'd be pretty surprised if they did. I have no idea how large the impact on used prices will be, but I'm pretty sure there will be one.

While the Model 3 will cannibalize some sales away from the Model S, I doubt that it will cause the Model S to lose value, or put the Model S at risk of being replaced by the Model 3. Your argument is like saying that the release of the next new BMW 3 series will cause the value of the larger 5 series to drop. It doesn't. The 3 and 5 model cars exist in two different market segments.

 

[SeanNelson]

So when a Model 3 with similar range is available for substantially less, do you think that Model S's will continue to hold their value as they have (without competition) until now? I'd be pretty surprised if they did. I have no idea how large the impact on used prices will be, but I'm pretty sure there will be one.

While the Model 3 will cannibalize some sales away from the Model S, I doubt that it will cause the Model S to lose value, or put the Model S at risk of being replaced by the Model 3. Your argument is like saying that the release of the next new BMW 3 series will cause the value of the larger 5 series to drop. It doesn't. The 3 and 5 model cars exist in two different market segments.

There's certainly a lot of truth in that. But the EV market has very limited selection right now, and it forces people to make compromises on which car they buy because the one that they'd ideally choose doesn't exist. I've seen posts on this and other forums weighing the idea of buying a used Model S vs. buying a Chevy Bolt or waiting for a the Model 3 to come out. Those are all different cars, but at least some people are cross-shopping them because they want more range than other EVs can give them and they can't afford or justify the cost of a new Model S.

I'm not saying that sales of new Model S cars will be affected, because you're right in that the market segment that can afford them will still be able to afford them when newer, cheaper EVs appear. But the value of used Model S's depends on a more price-conscious market segment that will be weighing the tradeoff between a used Model S and one of the new EVs which will be available over the next couple of years. It would be pretty surprising to me if that didn't weigh on their value.