Buy vs. Lease

[evnow]

So in this example, if the 3 year old Bolt can be sold for at least $21,000 in 2020, you'll be better off buying than leasing. If the 3 year old Bolt is worth less than $21,000, you'll be better off leasing. This assumes the cash flow works for you either way, ignores the differential time value of the two cash flow schedules, and includes some rounding at a couple steps.

Note that the lease in this example has a residual of $23,874 and a capitalized value of $35,614, so the total lease fees and interest are $2,532....

The argument for $2.5k instead of $7.5k tax credit included in lease has been that residual has been increased by $5k "artificially". If that turns out to be the case - expect to get less than $19k when you sell a 3 yr old Bolt. Realistically it would be lesser given Leaf 2, Model 3 etc will be readily available. Some manufacturers like Hyundai will even have 7.5k credit available.

So, yes, lease - even the expensive Bolt lease - will be cheaper.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Do we know if they are really inflating the residual by a full $5k, or maybe keeping a slice of that?

 

[michael]

Nobody can know until three years from now when we can compare the residuals to the actual market value of the lease returns. Until then it's an estimate

Historically the cars are worth far less then the residuals. I don't think they are making money off the $5k. I think they will be hurting three years from now.

 

[tedkidd]

Nobody can know until three years from now when we can compare the residuals to the actual market value of the lease returns. Until then it's an estimate

Historically the cars are worth far less then the residuals. I don't think they are making money off the $5k. I think they will be hurting three years from now.

Saw the car at our Auto Show. 100% agree. In three years I doubt these cars will command $15k, particularly the ones without CCS.

I would be very uncomfortable assuming depreciation risk on one of these cars.

 

[evnow]

If I get a Bolt - it would be as a stop gap until I get Model 3 (Q2 to Q4 of 2018).

My choices are
- Buy Bolt now for $40k ($32.5 after credits). Sell it when I get Model 3.
- Lease Bolt now for $500 a month (0 down). Transfer lease - I may have to sweeten the deal by offering cash.

What do you think will be cheaper ?

 

[michael]

I wouldn't assume you will want to swap into a model 3. Wait till they actually are available and priced to make that decision

My plan is to lease a bolt in two months when my Volt lease ends. Then in three years to get whatever is best then, which may or may not be a Tesla

 

[evnow]

I wouldn't assume you will want to swap into a model 3. Wait till they actually are available and priced to make that decision

We all have to make some assumption - my guess at this point is that it is likely I'll swap into Model 3. Only some catastrophic event like Trump nuking the world would prevent that. In other words the chances of me swapping out any car I get into in the next 2 months is much greater than me keeping the car till end of life/lease.

BTW, as we are talking about lease end residuals and used prices - keep one thing in mind. When the 7.5k tax credit goes away - automagically the used prices go up by $5k or so.

 

[michael]

When the $7.5K tax incentive goes away, EV sales crater. Sales volume is very small even with this great incentive, without it, vanishingly few will be sold new. Used cars won't become any more valuable.

 

[Nagorak]

If I get a Bolt - it would be as a stop gap until I get Model 3 (Q2 to Q4 of 2018).

My choices are
- Buy Bolt now for $40k ($32.5 after credits). Sell it when I get Model 3.
- Lease Bolt now for $500 a month (0 down). Transfer lease - I may have to sweeten the deal by offering cash.

What do you think will be cheaper ?

If you're really quite certain you're not going to keep it, I'd probably drop down to the LT and get it as bare bones as possible, with the exception of the DCFC port. I think you'll have an easier time unloading a cheaper model. Get the comfort package if you're in a cold climate, and don't if you're not.

 

[Nagorak]

When the $7.5K tax incentive goes away, EV sales crater. Sales volume is very small even with this great incentive, without it, vanishingly few will be sold new. Used cars won't become any more valuable.

I'm not sure the manufacturers won't just cut the price and eat the difference. The fact that the Bolt is selling for less in other regions suggests to me that GM is largely taking advantage of the rebate to sell at a higher price. They know that no one (or at least very few) will buy a Bolt at $37K+.

 

[WetEV]

Topic split. Capacity fade moved to

http://www.mychevybolt.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5940#p16000

 

[oilerlord]

I wouldn't buy any new car, much less an EV. Buy used. By the size of the seatzilla thread, someone may find a way to wiggle out of their lease or dump their car for a loss. Buyer's remorse happens all the time. There will be a plenty of heavily discounted, very low mileage units showing up on the market in the next few months. Time is your friend.

I don't like leasing either but given the reality of Spark EV's that were offered at $89 per month, it wouldn't surprise me if we see Bolt lease deals at $199 per month should sales stagnate. At that point, GM is basically paying YOU to drive their car. Lots of people spend 200 bucks per month on gas. Again, time is your friend.

 

[wongfeihong187]

I wouldn't buy any new car, much less an EV. Buy used. By the size of the seatzilla thread, someone may find a way to wiggle out of their lease or dump their car for a loss. Buyer's remorse happens all the time. There will be a plenty of heavily discounted, very low mileage units showing up on the market in the next few months. Time is your friend.

I don't like leasing either but given the reality of Spark EV's that were offered at $89 per month, it wouldn't surprise me if we see Bolt lease deals at $199 per month should sales stagnate. At that point, GM is basically paying YOU to drive their car. Lots of people spend 200 bucks per month on gas. Again, time is your friend.

I couldn't agree with you more. Patience is the key to getting the best deals.

 

[LeftieBiker]

GM allows lease transfers, so what will mainly be available will be take-overs with small or no down payments.

BTW, Nissan has apparently pulled a fast one on GM, assuming GM was counting on Leaf drivers, who can't wait for the new Leaf because of leases ending, to sigh and start paying those high Bolt leases. It isn't confirmed yet, but word is that Nissan will extend their Leaf leases until the 2018 Leaf (whether it's a new car or just a big refresh) is available, and will even give us two or three months of the extensions for free. I was about to buy my car, to resell when choices were better, but now I won't have to, hopefully.

 

[Nagorak]

Definitely a smart move on Nissan's part.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I can now confirm the Nissan lease extension. I haven't asked for mine yet, but it's been officially announced. The only caveat is that if you don't lease or buy another Nissan (or maybe even a Leaf, specifically, I forget) you have to pay those three "free" months back. Since my lease is $159 a month ($10 of which is tax that I have to keep paying anyway) it's no worry for me. This puts the Leaf 2 at the top of my list.

 

[DaveInAvl]

My understanding is that the LEAF lease extension is only for leases ending April 1 or later. We turned in our '14 LEAF last Thursday (3/9), a day before the 36-month lease expired. Looks like we'll be down to one car (an older Corolla) for a while...

 

[LeftieBiker]

If I were you, I'd give the Leaf specialists at NMAC a call, just in case.

 

[astroboy]

We debated long and hard about this. I'm a big believer in buying things and getting their full value out of them. But in this case we went with the 36 month lease. To get to a payment we'd be comfortable with would have meant a large downpayment, effectively gambling on whether or not the federal tax credit will exist by the time we file our 2017 taxes. Plus, we got badly burned on the poor resale of the LEAF which we purchased outright in 2011 (this is probably the biggest influencer on our decision making as of now).

yes, this is exactly where we are. bought a 2011 leaf outright, sight unseen, since we needed the carpool stickers in a bad way. having never leased a car, i figured that a lease was always a "ripoff" as you're borrowing money at a less favorable rate than a traditional loan. however, i think we would have been far ahead - even after 69 months of the leaf, and all the subsidies, it looks like our monthly cost is between $380 and $410 depending on how much the car is actually worth right now. i gotta believe a lease would have been in that ballpark. although we could have been driving something new 2.5 years ago, i'm not sure what it would have been. maybe another leaf.

given the current political climate, if the 7500 tax credit could disappear overnight, i'm sure it would happen. in my mind this makes leasing the more attractive option as the risk of not actually collecting the tax credit is on the finance company.

i am signed up for a tesla 3 (signed up maybe a minute after they started taking reservations) but now i'm not so hot on tesla. i don't know why it took me so long to realize this, but they essentially have root access to your car and can ssh in anytime they please to pull whatever logs they want. i don't really like that concept. of course, the same could be true of the bolt one way or another.

anyway i plan on looking at the bolt, at least. the leaf is down to 78% battery capacity (which is actually stellar) but the car is getting old. having said that, it has needed exactly $0 in maintenance, except for a new set of tires along the way. however since the resale value of the leaf is so bad, and i expect similar out of the bolt, i think leasing probably does make sense. the thing that gives me greatest pause is the wear and tear. the leaf has accumulated quite a few dings and scratches and it seems likely to me that i'll get nailed at the end of a lease for wear and tear.

 

[DaveInAvl]

If I were you, I'd give the Leaf specialists at NMAC a call, just in case.

Not sure what good that would do us, since (as I said) we already turned in the car

I will keep an eye out for its VIN to turn up on cars.com, just out of curiosity...