The January 2018 EV Sales Numbers are in: Bolt 1177, Volt 713

[JimFallstonMd]

http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Medi...nuary-2018.pdf

A big disappointment but it does stand to reason for new tax year. Bolt EV 1177 & Volt 713 deliveries.

 

[boltage]

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ lists other EVs as well.

 

[SparkE]

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ lists other EVs as well.

Something from the above link - it looks like Tesla averaged almost 400 model3s a week in Jan 2018. Not even double the Dec '17 total, and a far cry from the 5000 a week Elon announced. When has the '5000/week date been pushed back to?

I'm happy to see Tesla is improving production. I still don't think they will manage 5K model3s a week at any time this year, and I don't expect they'll hit 2.5K/wk at whatever point Elon says they will hit 5K. But we'll see.

I am looking forward to seeing more and more EVs on the road this year. More EVs is good for everyone.

 

[IMAdolt]

If I remember correctly from that same inside ev scorecard the tesla 5k a week goal wash pushed to July? It's in the model specific breakdowns.

 

[SeanNelson]

...it looks like Tesla averaged almost 400 model3s a week in Jan 2018. Not even double the Dec '17 total, and a far cry from the 5000 a week Elon announced.

One always has to be a bit circumspect with the Tesla sales figures - since they don't report them month by month the first two months of a quarter are always a guesstimate. We won't know the full story for the first quarter until the March numbers are released, and if history is any indication they will be a big jump over January and February.

One notable thing is that it's the first quarter in which reported Model 3 sales have exceeded those of the Bolt. It wouldn't surprise me if that continues until the end of Bolt or Model 3 production.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

One always has to be a bit circumspect with the Tesla sales figures - since they don't report them month by month the first two months of a quarter are always a guesstimate. We won't know the full story for the first quarter until the March numbers are released, and if history is any indication they will be a big jump over January and February.

This is true if you are talking about US sales figures (which is what InsideEVs reports). One (likely, IMO) theory is that Tesla does this in order to maximize deliveries within a quarter. They start each quarter with exports, since the transit time is much longer, and end with more and more local deliveries.

One thing I will point out, though, is that the above pattern is for established models (S and X), which are likely more demand limited than supply at this point. Tesla can and will sell every single Model 3 they build for quite a while. Possibly into 2019. So I don't know whether we will see this pattern play out with the Model 3. Then again, maybe, according to the above theory.

One notable thing is that it's the first quarter in which reported Model 3 sales have exceeded those of the Bolt. It wouldn't surprise me if that continues until the end of Bolt or Model 3 production.

I would go a step farther and say that I almost expect the Model 3 to outsell any other car on that list every month until it is dethroned by some yet unavailable model. Maybe the Model Y.

 

[SeanNelson]

Looks like the January sales figures for this year have exceeded those for last January (although you have to look in the last column of the spreadsheet to figure this out). The overall growth in EV sales continues.

 

[IMAdolt]

Looks like the January sales figures for this year have exceeded those for last January (although you have to look in the last column of the spreadsheet to figure this out). The overall growth in EV sales continues.

And there's still a few models yet to report numbers, I would expect bolt sales to pick up when they start delivering the 2018MY.

 

[SparkE]

Looks like the January sales figures for this year have exceeded those for last January (although you have to look in the last column of the spreadsheet to figure this out). The overall growth in EV sales continues.

Sorry to nitpick, but you have to look at the last row of the spreadsheet; columns are vertical, rows are horizontal.

 

[oilerlord]

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ lists other EVs as well.

Something from the above link - it looks like Tesla averaged almost 400 model3s a week in Jan 2018. Not even double the Dec '17 total, and a far cry from the 5000 a week Elon announced. When has the '5000/week date been pushed back to?

I'm happy to see Tesla is improving production. I still don't think they will manage 5K model3s a week at any time this year, and I don't expect they'll hit 2.5K/wk at whatever point Elon says they will hit 5K. But we'll see.

I am looking forward to seeing more and more EVs on the road this year. More EVs is good for everyone.

Interesting that Tesla is selling more Model 3's than they an build. GM is building more Bolt EV's than they can sell. A while back, Musk did mention that GM is only looking to sell ~25,000 cars per year to maximize the value of credits.

"That’s why you shouldn’t ask like why, well, GM appears to be losing $10,000 a car on the Bolt. No, they’re not. They are making it up on CARB credits. But they get the full retail value of the CARB credit, whereas we get the wholesale value when we’re lucky. But the CARB credits are only effective at a production rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles a year. So that’s why you’ll see, mark my words, it’s not going to be any higher than that for the Chevy Bolt. That’s on order of 25,000 units a year, or 0.10% of our initial production rate for the Model 3, or (~5%) of what Model 3 will be next year."

https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-talks-carb-zev-credits/

Looks like he was right.

 

[SparkE]

Oilerlord, I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not. Musk *may* have been correct - simply accepting that he was correct is a logical fallacy. When one says "X will happen because of Y", if X happens it doesn't mean that it really was because of Y. In fact, you yourself said "GM is building more Bolt EVs than they can sell" in that same post. You can't have it both ways. If GM is only making about 23,000 Bolts, and it isn't able to sell all of them, doesn't it make just as much sense that they aren't making more because they can't sell them?

Maybe they were making all the ones they could, based on availability of battery packs? That's the excuse trickling out about low model 3 production numbers, isn't it? But that couldn't be the reason for GM, that LG can't ship enough batteries? Or maybe GM only contracted with LG for a certain number of battery packs and under-estimated the demand for the Bolt?

Or maybe they rolled the Bolts out slowly, so that they would have the time to fix problems (in the production line, in the H/W, in the S/W, in the training of staff, ...) before shipping at full bore? The Bolt was a car that made it from idea, to design, to production in record time (for a large manufacturer). Maybe they didn't want to have a massive recall?

Or maybe the Bolt is the "test platform" for multiple other models, and GM's true purpose for the Bolt is simply to see what happens over a 2-3 year period (problems, likes, dislikes, hates, loves, design flaws, measure trade-offs, ...), and then tweak certain elements of what will be the *real* flood of EVs starting in 2020?

I, myself, have NO idea why GM shipped 23,297 Bolts in the U.S. during 2017 - and I am not ashamed to say so. However, "Musk said it, so it must be true" is simply not good enough reasoning for me to accept it, nor is "the numbers were correct, therefore the reason given must have been correct". Musk said that GM would 'only' ship <this large spread of numbers>" (when the spread, 20K-30K, is {a} HUGE and {b} just coincidentally, the exact spread where every single popular BEV could be found up to today? A spread that NO Tesla model has ever surpassed either?

 

[SeanNelson]

Looks like the January sales figures for this year have exceeded those for last January (although you have to look in the last column of the spreadsheet to figure this out). The overall growth in EV sales continues.

Sorry to nitpick, but you have to look at the last row of the spreadsheet; columns are vertical, rows are horizontal.

When I checked the spreadsheet, the total in the first column showed "####" because they didn't allow enough width for the total. So I had to refer to the last column, which had the same number due to the fact that none of the other months have figures yet.

 

[oilerlord]

If GM is only making about 23,000 Bolts, and it isn't able to sell all of them, doesn't it make just as much sense that they aren't making more because they can't sell them?

Sarcasm wasn't my intention. I'm not at all a disciple preaching the Word of Elon, just recognizing that at a time when analysts were predicting GM would sell ~80,000 Bolts in 2017, (30,000 being the "low" end), Musk made a low-volume prediction of 25,000 cars. The Bolt faithful scoffed at that prediction but it out to nearly spot on. I don't have the answers either. Insert conspiracy theory <here>. Perhaps it made sense for GM to build more than even they believed they'd sell because (as an example) it costs less per unit to build 40,000 cars than it does 20,000.

I think GM does what other manufacturers do when they are behind on their credit quotas: Offer giveaway lease deals to employees to bump their number up. That could be the reason they moved over 3000 Bolts in December, but only 1177 in January.

 

[Evoforce]

GM dealers are not stocking the vehicles in many parts of the US. Who is at fault for this? If there are a hoard of cars not being dispersed, why? Just like most dealerships, past and present, they would rather spin you into something else instead of BEV. Who is at fault for this?

Sorry, but I see there is a glut of these in carb states, why? Other countries are begging for some inventory, why are they not getting them? I feel from what I see, they are really only concerned with covering carb. They are also not advertising the Bolt in my area and it sounds like it is also not be advertised most other places either.

GM, so far, is not helping with quick charge stations. Outside of California, CCS is scarce. The local Nissan Dealers are not allowing anyone but Leaf to charge. The few Evgo are more expensive than gas for a 60 kWh battery EV. GM lack of concern for customer charging for apartment dwellers and those away from home is very concerning.

My take is that they are not serious enough about it yet. Carb is what they are concerned about.

 

[SparkE]

Musk made a low-volume prediction of 25,000 cars.

The Bolt sold a tad over 23K in the U.S. in 2017. In the history of BEVs, how many other models have sold at least 23K - ever?

Tesla 'S' 3 times (2017, 2016, 2015) - introduced 2012
LEAF once (2014) - introduced before 2012

So no other BEV has sold as many vehicles its first year of sales - not even close. Yes, Musk gave a range - which covered EVERY SINGLE successful BEV model that had been sold to date - and (gasp) he was *right*. No surprise there. Why is "low volume" used to describe the sales of the Bolt, but not every other popular BEV out there? Why isn't the model 'S' "low volume"? It has never shipped 30,000 vehicles a year (and certainly didn't break even a 20K annual rate the first 30 months - 3 model years - it was available)

From: https://chargedevs.com/newswire/elon-musk-gm-is-in-it-for-the-carb-credits-will-produce-only-25000-chevy-bolts-per-year/

“The CARB credits are only effective at a production rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles a year,” explains Musk. “So that’s why you’ll see – mark my words – it’s not going to be any higher than that for the Chevy Bolt. That’s on order of 25,000 units a year, or 10% of our initial production rate for the Model 3, or 5% of what Model 3 will be next year.”

Musk is not the only one who has thrown out that 25,000-per-year prediction. A couple of years ago, when the Bolt was still in the planning stages, InsideEVs reported that “supplier sources who need significant lead time to prepare for production say they are being told that General Motors expects to sell 25,000-30,000 Bolts per year once production is underway.”

Note that Musk was completely wrong as far as "initial production rate" of the model 3 (about 1700 in the first 6 months). We shall see how close his "5% of what Model 3 will be next year" (i.e., 2018) will be.

Note that chargedevs.com was also saying the there would be 25,000-30,000 Bolts : due to the supply chain.

The real test will be 2018 : how many Bolts will Chevy make when "ramp up" (or "making sure the new vehicle doesn't have bugs") isn't an excuse, or when "needed to make sure of our suppliers" can't be used as an excuse either? And how many model 3s will Tesla make, when "can't get enough battery packs" isn't a valid excuse? It will also be interesting to see how many model 3s under 40,000 ship in 2018.

 

[oilerlord]

Musk made a low-volume prediction of 25,000 cars.

The Bolt sold a tad over 23K in the U.S. in 2017. In the history of BEVs, how many other models have sold at least 23K - ever?

Tesla 'S' 3 times (2017, 2016, 2015) - introduced 2012
LEAF once (2014) - introduced before 2012

So no other BEV has sold as many vehicles its first year of sales - not even close. Yes, Musk gave a range - which covered EVERY SINGLE successful BEV model that had been sold to date - and (gasp) he was *right*. No surprise there. Why is "low volume" used to describe the sales of the Bolt, but not every other popular BEV out there? Why isn't the model 'S' "low volume"? It has never shipped 30,000 vehicles a year (and certainly didn't break even a 20K annual rate the first 30 months - 3 model years - it was available)

When I wrote "low-volume" what I really meant was Musk made a "low end of the range" prediction. 23,000 units is still a decent number given the comparables you mention, however I think the industry sees that as a disappointment. Simply put, there was lot of hype, and the sales didn't measure up for a car that was heralded by many as a "game changer". Had it not been for the other hype on the Model 3 - perhaps GM would have moved 80,000 Bolts.

 

[SparkE]

I don't think that GM would have sold 80K Bolts in any conceivable scenario. I would have been shocked had they shipped 40K units.

They ramped up slowly, only selling in a few states, then slowly added other states (and other countries). Personally, I think they did that on purpose - find any problems or defects before mass rollout. The last 3-4 months they averaged about 3K/month. If they can do that for 9-10 months of 2018, they'll be doing pretty good. (Sales of BEVs are always lower the first few months of the year - for all models.) Hopefully, they have told their battery supplier that they want double the number of battery packs in 2018 (compared to 2017).

Maybe if GM can start a sales effort mid-2018 with the slogan "the average price for a model 3 seems to be around $48,000 - we will prioritize sales to anyone who pays us that much, just like Tesla - AND you can order one from us today and get it in 6 weeks or less!" I wonder how many increased sales they will get. (That's a joke, people.)

It will be very interesting to see how many absolutely base versions of the model 3 ($35,000) ship before Dec 2018. Heck, I wouldn't mind a model 3 myself - for 35,000 (minus 7,500 U.S. federal, minus 2500 Calif). The supercharger network is worth it (I don't mind paying for electricity - I just want to be able to use the car when I travel). Of course, that "I wouldn't mind" might change after reports from the field about how well finished the car is, how many production errors - I probably wouldn't want one built in the first 6 months of more-or-less "complete" ramp up (anything over 1500/week).

 

[DucRider]

It will be very interesting to see how many absolutely base versions of the model 3 ($35,000) ship before Dec 2018. Heck, I wouldn't mind a model 3 myself - for 35,000 (minus 7,500 U.S. federal, minus 2500 Calif). The supercharger network is worth it (I don't mind paying for electricity - I just want to be able to use the car when I travel). Of course, that "I wouldn't mind" might change after reports from the field about how well finished the car is, how many production errors - I probably wouldn't want one built in the first 6 months of more-or-less "complete" ramp up (anything over 1500/week).

Friends who have configured cars were given delivery dates of Tue/Wed this week, cars arrived in town, delivery now delayed with no ETA "awaiting parts".
Tesla develops, tests, produces, and rolls out products very differently from "traditional" manufacturers. If they want to get to the weekly/monthly/annual volumes they are promising, it is likely that they will need to re-examine some of those practices.