Does the $9K loss figure "add up"?

[Nagorak]

The Bolt is a bit bigger than the Fiesta, at least it's bigger inside. Ford Fiesta, along with Chevy Spark and Honda Fit are all on my "unusable" list because my family is too tall to fit in them. Literally no one can sit behind me in those cars, and I basically can't fit in the back seat. So, I think a comparable car would be one closer to 20K overall.

 

[WetEV]

A comparable gasoline car would sell for somewhere around $20,000. Why would an electric need to sell for half of a gasoline car to be a breakthrough?

The Tin Lizzie sold for less than half the price of comparable competitors in its day.

Not initially. Ford even raised the price in 1910. And the Model T was priced higher than the Ford Model S, which while successful for it's time didn't make the impression of the Model T. Then cost cutting and rapidly increasing volumes drove the Model T price down, and allowed the Model T to become over half the cars sold.

Who will remember the Bolt in the year 2117?

I suspect that some electric car will get close to the iconic status of the Model T. Might be the Bolt, might be even be the Nissan Leaf, might be a Tesla, might be some car not yet heard about.

Several technological and economic changes have made electric cars more competitive with gasoline cars.

1) Better, cheaper and lighter batteries.
2) Better power electronics.
3) Peak of conventional oil production.
4) Climate change.

(1) and (2) interact quite a bit. Even if Li-ion batteries were known in 1909, there wasn't the ability to control the charging to avoid damage.

(3) This doesn't mean the end of civilization, as production of gasoline from somewhat more expensive methods can continue for centuries. For about $5 per US gallon (about $1.25 per liter), gasoline can be made from coal, of which there is a few hundred years of supply or more. But after that, no more gasoline.

(4) You might not believe in climate change. Ice doesn't care.

 

[phil0909]

I suspect that some electric car will get close to the iconic status of the Model T. Might be the Bolt, might be even be the Nissan Leaf, might be a Tesla, might be some car not yet heard about.

Sure, it could happen, someday. My point is that no electric car currently in existence is anywhere near having earned such status, and electrics are still only around one percent of new cars sold. Electrics still have a long way to go before they can hope to change the world as much as the Model T did. If it does happen, I'd expect a decade or two of slow, incremental gains. Or it may never happen. We shall see!

 

[oilerlord]

Sure, it could happen, someday. My point is that no electric car currently in existence is anywhere near having earned such status, and electrics are still only around one percent of new cars sold. Electrics still have a long way to go before they can hope to change the world as much as the Model T did. If it does happen, I'd expect a decade or two of slow, incremental gains. Or it may never happen. We shall see!

The Bolt is more evolutionary than revolutionary. If the Bolt was going to cause a revolution, we would have already seen it. Batteries and the electrical bits will become less expensive but at the same time, we're going to see more efficient ICEV's in the pipeline too (which is a good thing).

The Model 3 may sell 400,000+ cars over x years. Will Tesla's best selling car in it's lineup qualify it as revolutionary? I think marketing departments use words like "revolutionary" and "game changer" to often to describe products that really - aren't. If a phone comes out with a faster processor and a higher pixel density, is it really revolutionary? Today's Apple thinks so. I don't. We have our sights set so low these days.

To me, a product is truly revolutionary when creates a market that didn't previously exist and/or blows away an established norm. Think iPod & iTunes. 1000 songs in your pocket, and an entire music industry turned upside down. That's a revolution. A 200 mile EV isn't in the same league.

 

[boltage]

A comparable gasoline car would sell for somewhere around $20,000. Why would an electric need to sell for half of a gasoline car to be a breakthrough?

Are you sure? The Ford Fiesta is a nice little hatchback. I like my Bolt, but I have to admit the Fiesta is generally comparable except for the ICE. Fiesta base price is $14,835 for 2017.

The Fiesta is a nice-driving car (but on the slow side of acceleration by today's standards), but it is certainly smaller inside, particularly in the back seat.