Analyst says 30,000 to 80,000 Chevy Bolt EVs could sell in first full model year

[unplugged]

An analyst for Kelley Blue Book predicts that Chevy will sell 30,000 to 80,000 Bolt electric vehicles in the first full model year. Other predictions have been at the 20,000 to 30,000 mark because of supplier and inside information.

80,000 is more than double the highest other prediction, but it's really anybody's guess.

There is such an interest in the Model 3 I think analysts are predicting there could be huge demand for the Bolt EV as well?
If GM can market the Bolt well, and can really deliver large numbers to dealerships nationwide at the end of this year, they could steal some deposit holders away from the Model 3 - assuming the Bolt EV driving experience is good of course. Test drives could be a large pull for reservees I think

 

[c1987]

I will be one to buy the Bolt and a Tesla 3 when they come out. Trade in my LEAF for a BOLT then give the BOLT to my son when I get the M3.

 

[shane78]

I will be one to buy the Bolt and a Tesla 3 when they come out. Trade in my LEAF for a BOLT then give the BOLT to my son when I get the M3.

I like how you think! My son would be on board, but not sure about my wife..... probably wouldn't leave us much money for a house

 

[mark111]

I will be one to buy the Bolt and a Tesla 3 when they come out. Trade in my LEAF for a BOLT then give the BOLT to my son when I get the M3.

You're the first person that I saw in Chevy Bolt Forum who is getting both the Bolt EV and Tesla 3!

 

[Tessy]

I was looking online at it last night and noticed that it did say sales as high as eighty thousand so that's a pretty grand projection

 

[Aidan]

I wonder how they are doing to date?

 

[devbolt]

I wonder how they are doing to date?

579 so far. And that's only in the last week or so. Expect a lot more in the coming weeks and months.

 

[d2170]

GM will lose money on each Bolt they sell (some estimate loss of $9,000 per vehicle). The Bolt is a definitely a compliance car. GM has no intention of cranking up the volume like Tesla will be with the Model 3.

With the exception of the Nissan Leaf, all these EVs are compliance cars, to obtain ZEV credits, and to try out their engineering teams and the EV market.

How do you know when they (e.g. GM) are serious about making and selling EVs in volume? Answer: when they are serious about building (or obtaining) huge battery cell volumes. Tesla is clearly serious, they are building the GF.

(note: GM gets its battery cells from LG Chem)

Nonetheless, it's great to see the Bolt with 238-mile range hitting the market now. It will probably be available for lease for around $300 per month later this year, after the initial shipments of 1H2017.

 

[WetEV]

GM will lose money on each Bolt they sell (some estimate loss of $9,000 per vehicle). The Bolt is a definitely a compliance car.

The loss depends on the volume. Economics of cars is driven by a declining cost curve, the more you make the cheaper each one is. There is some volume of production/sales where GM will lose $9,000 per car, so the press report is accurate, if misleading, as the press report doesn't state at what volume has this loss.

 

[SeanNelson]

GM will lose money on each Bolt they sell (some estimate loss of $9,000 per vehicle). The Bolt is a definitely a compliance car.

Oh sure, that must explain why they're selling it in all 50 states, Europe and Canada... :roll:

 

[DucRider]

GM will lose money on each Bolt they sell (some estimate loss of $9,000 per vehicle). The Bolt is a definitely a compliance car. GM has no intention of cranking up the volume like Tesla will be with the Model 3.

With the exception of the Nissan Leaf, all these EVs are compliance cars, to obtain ZEV credits, and to try out their engineering teams and the EV market.

How do you know when they (e.g. GM) are serious about making and selling EVs in volume? Answer: when they are serious about building (or obtaining) huge battery cell volumes. Tesla is clearly serious, they are building the GF.

(note: GM gets its battery cells from LG Chem)

Nonetheless, it's great to see the Bolt with 238-mile range hitting the market now. It will probably be available for lease for around $300 per month later this year, after the initial shipments of 1H2017.

LEAF is not a compliance car and it's best year was 30K?
Bolt will be 30K plus, will be sold in non-ZEV states (and around the world).
GM has a surplus of ZEV credits and doesn't need to build another compliance car - the Spark EV sold in sufficient volume to satisfy all their requirements (and was a compliance car - sold only in CA, OR, MD - all ZEV states)

A compliance car by definition is sold only to garner ZEV credits.

Oh, wait. Tesla fan bois get to decide what it really means.....
The i3 is a compliance car because it uses skinny tires (a compromise for range?)

What exactly makes the Bolt a compliance car? And what is it complying with?

Are all current Teslas compliance cars because they source batteries from Panasonic?
Are the Model S and X compliance cars because they have never sold more than 30K in a year (US sales - which is where they would need to "comply")

And the $9K loss per car is just a rumor "from a source familiar with the matter" (and Tesla is "losing money" on every car if you look at their bottom line - the only quarters they have made a profit result from ZEV credit sales).

 

[devbolt]

GM will lose money on each Bolt they sell (some estimate loss of $9,000 per vehicle). The Bolt is a definitely a compliance car. GM has no intention of cranking up the volume like Tesla will be with the Model 3.

The loss estimate that we've all heard bandied about has no context. Is that loss including the R&D necessary to develop the car? Is it just based on production costs (i.e costs $45K to build the base LT model, but is selling for $36K)? Is retooling factored into that?

GM has the ability to crank up the volume to whatever level that it's suppliers can supply parts at. If LG can only provide 50K batteries the first year, they are limited to 50K Bolts that can be built.

Tesla has to crank up it's production numbers in order to survive as an automaker. They don't have the luxury of being able to slowly ramp up production like GM. This is because Tesla only produces 2 different models right now. They don't have a full line of trucks and cars that carry them through lean times.

With the exception of the Nissan Leaf, all these EVs are compliance cars, to obtain ZEV credits, and to try out their engineering teams and the EV market.

Some EV cars are compliance models. Some are not. A compliance car is typically produced in small numbers (less than 3K a year), and only offered in limited markets, primarily California, and in the past has usually only been available as a lease and not available for purchase at lease end, though there are some exceptions to this. The Bolt will be available nationwide, will be produced in numbers far greater than 3K a year, and is available for purchase or lease.

How do you know when they (e.g. GM) are serious about making and selling EVs in volume? Answer: when they are serious about building (or obtaining) huge battery cell volumes. Tesla is clearly serious, they are building the GF.

(note: GM gets its battery cells from LG Chem)

We don't know if LG Chem is production constrained on the number of battery packs that it can supply currently. We know that they are contracted to supply up to 50K this year for GM.

Nonetheless, it's great to see the Bolt with 238-mile range hitting the market now. It will probably be available for lease for around $300 per month later this year, after the initial shipments of 1H2017.

It's already available for that price, if you want a stripped down base LT model with no options. However, it seems like most of the Bolts that have been delivered to dealers have been more content rich.

 

[d2170]

We don't know if LG Chem is production constrained on the number of battery packs that it can supply currently. We know that they are contracted to supply up to 50K this year for GM.

At lease price of around $300 per month, with 238-mile range, I think the demand for the Bolt will be huge, much higher than 50k units per year. (The Model 3 has over 400,000 reservations at the same price point with about the same range)

There is nothing special about making a basic electric car like the Bolt. They all know how to do it (GM, Ford, VW, MB, VW, Toyota, Hyundai, Audi, Honda, Nissan, etc, etc.). In fact, for the Bolt, the battery pack and the electric motor is sourced from LG Chem. The Bolt would be $15,000 if it was an 4 cylinder ICE car.

The key is the battery. At what price, what weight, what volumetric energy density. And will it be able to charge 1000 to 2000 times in 3-6 years and maintain its range in a reasonable manner.

When we hear companies such as LG Chem adding huge capacities because of electric cars then we know the car manufactures are serious.

No one except Tesla is serious about volume at the moment, but I think (and hope) the rest will follow soon.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

At lease price of around $300 per month, with 238-mile range, I think the demand for the Bolt will be huge, much higher than 50k units per year. (The Model 3 has over 400,000 reservations at the same price point with about the same range)

Tesla has the supercharging network. Don't underestimate that. It is the difference between staying within 1/2 range of your home charger and comfortably/confidently exceeding that range.

The key is the battery. At what price, what weight, what volumetric energy density. And will it be able to charge 1000 to 2000 times in 3-6 years and maintain its range in a reasonable manner.

The Bolt will not need to perform a full recharge every day unless you drive it 200+ miles every day. For many, it will require, on average, a recharge once every 5 days. So in 6 years, it will have undergone only 400 charge cycles. Plus, shallow daily cycles are less stressful than occasional full cycles, which is how battery lifespans are measured.

When we hear companies such as LG Chem adding huge capacities because of electric cars then we know the car manufactures are serious.

IMO, one thing that LG Chem is doing right is building volume by gaining customers. That way if GM buys 30k battery packs, Ford buys 10k, Chrysler buys 10k...well, it all adds up. LG could very well beat out Panasonic/Tesla in terms of market share in this way. And that helps every one by driving down their cell cost.

 

[devbolt]

We don't know if LG Chem is production constrained on the number of battery packs that it can supply currently. We know that they are contracted to supply up to 50K this year for GM.

At lease price of around $300 per month, with 238-mile range, I think the demand for the Bolt will be huge, much higher than 50k units per year. (The Model 3 has over 400,000 reservations at the same price point with about the same range)

That lease price, sadly, is for a bare-bones model with no options or upgrades. Also, we don't know what the actual range of the Model 3 will be, nor the actual price for it or what sort of content it will have. We just have some vague promises. My prediction is that the $35K promised price will come with reduced range and content and will not be on time. I also think that the two cars don't compete in the same market segment, so it's an apples to oranges kind of comparison. The only thing they seem to share in common is that they are electric vehicles.

There is nothing special about making a basic electric car like the Bolt. They all know how to do it (GM, Ford, VW, MB, VW, Toyota, Hyundai, Audi, Honda, Nissan, etc, etc.). In fact, for the Bolt, the battery pack and the electric motor is sourced from LG Chem. The Bolt would be $15,000 if it was an 4 cylinder ICE car.

The Toyota RAV4 went from a sub-$30K car to a $50K car by putting a Tesla powertrain in it. Ouch. Still, it was a pretty nice experiment. Loved renting it when I could.

The key is the battery. At what price, what weight, what volumetric energy density. And will it be able to charge 1000 to 2000 times in 3-6 years and maintain its range in a reasonable manner.

Well, at a range of 238 miles per charge, 1000 full charges would equate 238K miles in 3 to 6 years. That's between 40K and 80K miles a year. Unless you are using it as a taxi, most consumers are unlikely to hit that amount of mileage. And I get the feeling that using it as a taxi is not within the design specs, especially since the time to fast charge back to a reasonable range limit would put the car out of service for longer than most taxi drivers like and stress the battery. Ride share service is a different animal and probably won't put nearly the same amount of stress on the car that a taxi would.

When we hear companies such as LG Chem adding huge capacities because of electric cars then we know the car manufactures are serious.

No one except Tesla is serious about volume at the moment, but I think (and hope) the rest will follow soon.

Tesla has no choice because all they do is electric vehicles. GM and others can afford to take a slower approach. LG Chem and other battery manufacturers are already quietly ramping up production. Some of it is fueled by other products (laptops, phones, toys, etc) but will help overall.

 

[Nagorak]

Some EV cars are compliance models. Some are not. A compliance car is typically produced in small numbers (less than 3K a year), and only offered in limited markets, primarily California, and in the past has usually only been available as a lease and not available for purchase at lease end, though there are some exceptions to this. The Bolt will be available nationwide, will be produced in numbers far greater than 3K a year, and is available for purchase or lease.

I agree. I wouldn't call either the Bolt or the Leaf compliance cars. A compliance car can be easily recognized by being a standard non-EV model that has an electric drive slapped into it, which is then sold in minuscule numbers. Leaf didn't sell that many numbers, but it was more than a compliance car. Unfortunately, since the introduction of the Leaf, Nissan has seemingly completely dropped the ball to the point where the Leaf looks pretty anemic now.

In terms of mass market appeal, the thing that was holding back the Leaf is the range was too small. Yes, you can work around it, and you can make an argument that the car could work for most people, but the cold hard truth is there wasn't that much margin for error. If you even had to drive an hour outside the city, you weren't going to make it back without recharge. All but the most hardcore are not going to be comfortable with that little range.

The Bolt having hit the 200+ magic number, I think the prospects for the car look good. The only issue at this point is cost. Performance is already better than most gas cars.

 

[SparkE]

Some EV cars are compliance models. Some are not. A compliance car is typically produced in small numbers (less than 3K a year), and only offered in limited markets, primarily California, and in the past has usually only been available as a lease and not available for purchase at lease end, though there are some exceptions to this. The Bolt will be available nationwide, will be produced in numbers far greater than 3K a year, and is available for purchase or lease.

I agree. I wouldn't call either the Bolt or the Leaf compliance cars. A compliance car can be easily recognized by being a standard non-EV model that has an electric drive slapped into it, which is then sold in minuscule numbers. Leaf didn't sell that many numbers, but it was more than a compliance car. Unfortunately, since the introduction of the Leaf, Nissan has seemingly completely dropped the ball to the point where the Leaf looks pretty anemic now. {...}

I seem to recall reading fairly recently 9last few months) that the LEAF sold over 100,000 units in the U.S. alone. I would never say "didn't sell that many numbers" to describe a vehicle with over 100K sales!

 

[DucRider]

When we hear companies such as LG Chem adding huge capacities because of electric cars then we know the car manufactures are serious.

No one except Tesla is serious about volume at the moment, but I think (and hope) the rest will follow soon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lectric-car-boom-with-battery-plant-in-poland
http://insideevs.com/lg-chems-mystery-automotive-customer/
http://insideevs.com/lg-chem-opens-new-battery-factory-in-china/
http://gas2.org/2015/12/15/lg-chem-factory-may-have-largest-battery-factory-in-us/

 

[Nagorak]

Some EV cars are compliance models. Some are not. A compliance car is typically produced in small numbers (less than 3K a year), and only offered in limited markets, primarily California, and in the past has usually only been available as a lease and not available for purchase at lease end, though there are some exceptions to this. The Bolt will be available nationwide, will be produced in numbers far greater than 3K a year, and is available for purchase or lease.

I agree. I wouldn't call either the Bolt or the Leaf compliance cars. A compliance car can be easily recognized by being a standard non-EV model that has an electric drive slapped into it, which is then sold in minuscule numbers. Leaf didn't sell that many numbers, but it was more than a compliance car. Unfortunately, since the introduction of the Leaf, Nissan has seemingly completely dropped the ball to the point where the Leaf looks pretty anemic now. {...}

I seem to recall reading fairly recently 9last few months) that the LEAF sold over 100,000 units in the U.S. alone. I would never say "didn't sell that many numbers" to describe a vehicle with over 100K sales!

That must be a cumulative number. On a monthly basis it hasn't been a big seller. http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

But, to be fair, that's impressive for the first mass produced electric car, especially considering it only has around a 100 mile range (and for much of its life only had around 85 miles).

 

[d2170]

Thanks for those links about LG Chem battery productions.

I suspect the demand for the Bolt will be very high because I believe the TCO of the Bolt is already about the same as a Toyota Camry.

I haven't done the calculation carefully, but because of its 250-mile range, many Tesla owners don't charge their cars at home, they simply charge for free at work M-F during the day. For Bolt owners who are able to do this, the TCO over three to six years (lease or purchase) will very likely be lower than the Toyota Camry.

(Leaf and e-Golf owners do charge at work when they can, but because of the limited range, they also charge at home at night.)