I predict that a 200-mile / 60kWh Leaf will be available within 6 months of the Bolt. You clearly disagree.
Here are some facts on which I base my prediction:
- Nissan has said that the next generation Leaf is due to arrive by the end of their "Power 88" plan - which ends March 31, 2017.
- Nissan unveiled the IDS concept with a 60kWh battery and strongly hinted that it is a strong indication of the next Leaf
- Ghosn responded to the Bolt unveiling by confirming that Nissan can and will meet or exceed its range
- Ghosn has lit a fire underneath their battery supplier's rear end. He basically said they better match what LG Chem can do for GM, or he is jumping ship. He is committed to EVs, but not to a particular battery technology.
- Nissan is still the world leader in cumulative BEV sales (although their lead is shrinking). They are talking like they are committed to retain that lead.
So we'll find out soon enough, but I expect Nissan to offer two battery options next spring: 40kWh and 60kWh. The high end will compete head-on with the Bolt.
VW is a bit of a wild card. Yes, the 2017 eGolf will have a boost to 36kWh. But it is stuck with the same battery volume as the 2016 eGolf. The car is due for an overhaul soon, and I expect them to find more space for batteries. I suspect we'll see a good jump in 2018. Remember, they also have been showing off their Budd-E concept with 100kWh of batteries! We could see a crossover coming soon that has 200+ miles of range.
Ford is a total mystery. They will probably catch up with GM/Nissan/etc, but not likely until 2018 or 2019.
So to boil down my prediction (which is as good as yours):
Bolt: T = 0
200-mile Leaf: T = +6 months
200-mile eGolf: T = +12 months
at T = +24 months, the Bolt will have no fewer than four other competitors in the 200-mile / sub-$40k zone
And then there is the question of infrastructure. In its current state, a 200-mile BEV is no more compelling to me than a 125-mile BEV. I just don't drive that far unless I'm going 250+ miles. And when I'm going 250+ miles, I need to charge on the road. Right now I cannot do so reliably. So what will the greater market say? More miles at any cost? Or will a cheaper option with sufficient range sell much better?