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Well, I decided to pull the trigger - on a purchase, not a lease.

While it's easy to second-guess, my reasoning was:

• I can take the full tax credit now
• I didn't want the stress of worrying about some fine print I might have missed
• I don't like car shopping, and don't want to be "forced" to get a new car in 3 years if I don't have to
• The car's been out long enough and had enough reviews that major issues seem unlikely (though certainly not impossible - there are a lot of electronics, and it is still the 1st model year)
• The 8-year/100,000 mile battery warranty gives me some solace that the battery degradation/life expectancy will not be too bad
• If I really end up hating it for some reason, I can still sell it on my own (easier than selling/getting out of the lease) - though I would forgo some of the NYS rebate if it were sooner than 3 years
• I looked at the cars that are announced/expected to be on the market by the end of 2020, and don't see anything that looks like a major upgrade (I don't want an SUV)
• IF I do look at the market in 3 years and decide another car would suit me better, I think the chances are quite high that there would still be a decent market for a used Bolt - or I could give it to my parents.

I can totally understand why leasing would be the better option for many, if not most - but for me, I ultimately decided I would feel better buying.  (Plus, GM Financial apparently couldn't figure out how to run a credit check using the temporary authorization code I gave them after temporarily lifting the freeze with credit companies - thanks, Equifax  :x )